. . . but I do feel Leinster are in for a white humdinger at the RDS tonight

GOD ONLY knows how the Ospreys will perform tomorrow at Thomond Park, or who will even turn up, but that’s of little importance as tonight is where the lessons will be learned.

The RDS fixture between Leinster and Ulster has three key aspects, and with the Madness of King Louis in France dropping Yannick Jauzion and Clement Poitrenaud from his World Cup squad a full four months from the New Zealand tournament, it is a timely reminder that Ulster prop Tom Court, centres Nevin Spence and Darren Cave, back three boys Adam D’Arcy, Craig Gilroy, and especially outhalf Ian Humphreys have another chance to impress.

Secondly, the benchmark is back. Leinster “entertain” Northampton next week and Ulster have played them both recently.

Finally, the third reason, for tonight’s fixture: Leinster selection for the Heineken Cup final, most notably one wing forward and one wing. For many this is the most important aspect of the fixture, never mind a Magners League final in Limerick!

Let’s start at the end first. Luke Fitzgerald has been on my mind for some time. He’s a class player, but he has been struggling. We’re waiting for that powerful, crisp line that will pick up a perfect Brian O’Driscoll pass and prize open Northampton for the try of the season. Why then the concern, especially as we know he is capable of exactly that? Unfortunately, Fitzgerald’s game requires that type of perfection from himself and his team-mates. Others without his talents require less and as a result often give more.

Fergus McFadden is exactly the player who offers far more than Fitzgerald by ticking the full array of boxes much more consistently. Defensively he is very strong and never slips tackles inside or out. In fact, he can at times fall victim to over-committing to the hit. This can be a little risky in midfield but spot-on out wide on the wing where his timing is excellent. I don’t recall him over-running a pass this season, and when he does get the ball in hand he is extremely powerful, bouncing defenders, and rarely dies with the ball. He can kick the ball, as evidenced against Glasgow, and works very hard off his fullback for the counter-attack.

Coaches often face these tough decisions and only in hindsight do we get an insight into their reasoning. We simply can’t compete with their knowledge of the team. At a much lower level, I have experienced selecting a “seconds” player over a highly-rated representative player. I received much tut-tutting, but I could justify it to both the player in question (who went on to play for England) and the committee men who were none too excited by the promotion from within. My reasoning was simple: I could see what the seconds player was achieving and contributing for the team, but I had to wait in hope the representative player would turn the corner. What a call Leinster coach Joe Schmidt faces, one further complicated by excluding Shane Horgan tonight.

The other decision at wing forward will exercise Schmidt equally. This time it would be easier to leave Shane Jennings out as his injury sidelined him for weeks. This would be a mistake. Kevin McLaughlin deserves the plaudits coming his way, but his role in the secondrow last week was telling, especially alongside Devon Toner. Leinster lacked the heavy lifting dog that Leo Cullen and Nathan Hines bring; the crucial dog that should not be taken for granted at this level. McLaughlin could be a luxury not worth carrying, especially as Jennings slotted in so beautifully on his arrival against Toulouse.

However, with Northampton’s Courtney Lawes floating in the air Schmidt may elect to start McLaughlin. I do fancy the balance and dog of the backrow with Jennings in it.

Can Ulster beat Leinster tonight? Yes they can. If they are to test Leinster they must do so in the opening 60 minutes, as beyond that they fade and their high-octane style of total blanket support pays fewer dividends. They have an extraordinary work-ethic, highlighted most recently by the excellent individual try from Spence in Newport after eight minutes: on dotting down in the far corner there were six Ulster men in support. Most of Ulster’s attacks arise from off-the-top ball towards the tail, down to Ruan Pienaar, Humphreys and finally Spence out wide sucking the defensive outhalf into unchartered territory, testing the drift defence.

Allied to this tactic, Ulster employ their blindside wingers much more regularly than any other Magners League side. In fact, their active blindsides create space for their young centres to exploit in midfield as defences sweat on the hard inside-lines speedster Gilroy and Simon Danielli.

Watch out for Humphreys’ double parallel switch. As this season has unfolded, Humphreys’ influence has been steadily growing to the extent his game, minus the physicality, is very similar to Reds’ Quade Cooper. High praise indeed, but justified.

He controls the game brilliantly; watch his cross-field kicks for Danielli. He can switch with Spence to fire off a big wiper. Crucially, his team-mates are on his wavelength.

So why the concern for Ulster as the clock ticks? Their counter-ruck is based on volumes of white shirts swarming the ball carrier, slowing down possession. As they tire, the numbers reduce. They lack the power and physicality as individuals to slow the ball and compete allowing the opposition to gain flow and advantage in attack. With fatigue comes a lighter support for Humphreys which can force him into contact.

Their work-rate works in attack also where Dan Touhy’s and especially Rory Best’s support play is exceptional. On completion of the ruck watch how quickly they get back into their support pods. I expect them to chase every kick, putting pressure on the Leinster back three.

Pienaar is very important, quietly getting on with his business. He is a great foil to Humphreys, the trickster. Ulster’s reception of the traditional kick-off is excellent, always being returned by a Pienaar box kick which are very high but can be a tad too long. Leinster can opt for this knowing they’ll get the ball back immediately. Gaps will open for Pienaar; Leinster backrow watch out.

Unfortunately, Touhy has not recovered. He, with Diack and captain Johann Muller, helps Ulster’s lineout to be very varied, but at times too ponderous with heavy switches of lifters and jumpers crossing the ground. Without BJ Botha their scrum is weakened, especially with Court switching sides mid game – advantage Leinster.

Ulster will struggle to match Leinster’s pace and power, but I do feel Leinster are in for a white humdinger.

As always, some homework: Northampton travel to Leicester tomorrow, keep a close eye on Springbok Pedrie Wannenburg for Ulster. I’m not convinced.