Gordon D’Arcy: Leinster v Saracens will be like ‘Game of Thrones’

What makes Saracens seem so invincible is their ability to force opponents into taking what they know to be the wrong option.

Same way England repeatedly punished Ireland in Dublin last February. There were too many moments when kicking from the 22 was simply offering England/Sarries a chance to crank up their maul and multi-phase attack that inevitably ends with Vunipolas charging towards the try line from a metre out.

Ireland, like Munster on Saturday, were swamped. Tadhg Furlong’s attempt to carry over the gainline in that opening Six Nations game was put in reverse by Mako Vunipola and George Kruis. The same thing happened to CJ Stander, Bundee Aki and Garry Ringrose; every time one of these strike runners sought to make ground the Saracens were waiting.

I know that feeling. When your forwards are being dragged into hell the No.12 must do the dirty carries (Robbie Henshaw is brilliant at this). You know how it will pan out before the ball touches your scrumhalf’s fingertips. You can see the ruck creaking as you are about to accelerate onto the pass. You know that checking your stride guarantees a lost collision.

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The Saracens defence tends to make you stop cold and wait for your half backs to realign. All the while celebratory cursing can be heard across the battlement. You hear them say your name. They know the next ball is yours. The ruck is sufficiently damaged so they fan out. Two or three of these man mountains lay claim to your body. You are getting a useless one or two stride run up onto flat ball directly into these giants who are already inching offside.

This is your miserable existence. The clock shows five minutes played. Another 75 going backwards. Lose this collision and they will regain possession deep in your team’s territory. The crowd has already gone silent. Your crowd. Older rugby heads are the first to go mute. Plenty of them would have seen the signs far too early at the Ricoh Arena. Their children notice and while they might not understand the reason for concern, they also cease to make noise.

All you can hear is coarse English accents, F-ing and blinding, in anticipation of the hit. You take the pass a split second before the double Kruis and Vunipola bashing.

Rewind to the previous lineout. Before the carry into certain pain. If solid ball comes back the supply line will be more like Luke McGrath’s on Sunday against Toulouse as opposed to Munster and Ireland right up in the face of Sarries men out for blood.

I am heartened by the sight of Devin Toner’s return. Yes, Dev was present for that England game, suffering perhaps more than most (CJ Stander aside), but the Champions Cup final now offers an opportunity to evolve and atone. Improve the set piece structure. Improve the relieving kick. Improve the chase. Improve the defensive set-up to turn the pressure back on Saracens. Alter the rules of engagement.

Uncompromising team

Fundamentals win major trophies. Both teams understand the meaning of this sentence. The season has been building to this moment. These past few years have brought us here. Saracens or Leinster to rule the decade? Leinster don’t lose European finals but that reality will be tested more than previous days against Leicester, Northampton, Ulster and Racing.

This really feels likes a game to decide the best team in a generation.

Modern Munster, two years ago and now, were unable to live with Saracens. There are several reasons – Sarries are a great, uncompromising team – but Munster know full well what they are missing.

Some players have an aura. Every time Ronan O’Gara took the field you felt it. Seán O’Brien in Leinster blue still brings a sense that anything is possible (certainly since the 2011 final).

Brian O’Driscoll transformed any team I played on into believers. We saw the impossible happen when he wore 13, stealing games we had no right to win with a moment of magic. No matter what situation we found ourselves in, we had a chance because of Brian. I also took great comfort from Paul O’Connell’s presence in the changing room.

Munster have a player who can take them back to where they once existed. Like Owen Farrell for Saracens and Johnny Sexton for Leinster, Joey Carbery holds the key to any future success.

It didn’t work out for Tyler Bleyendaal in Coventry. There is no hard evidence to suggest Carbery would have stopped Saracens squeezing the life out of them. None at all. But there is a feeling. A sense of something special about him.

An aura. The hamstring injury temporarily slows his rise to challenging Sexton for the Ireland jersey. That’s how good a season he was having for Munster along with an all too brief Six Nations cameo in Murrayfield.

Losing him was played down, understandably, but think about a franchise quarterback missing the play-offs. Add their wide receiver, Keith Earls, and psychologically the game was probably lost before kick-off.

I look at Leinster against Saracens with biased eyes. Can’t escape that, but I can see the consistency of performance that makes the English champions favourites to win in St James’ Park on May 11th.

Still, I’d prefer to be coached by Stuart Lancaster. Just look at Leinster’s ruthless response to Thomas Ramos kicking the ball dead after Sexton made it 3-all. Lancaster’s attacking strategy was launched off that scrum.

Personal rivalry

Three minutes of non-stop – yet pre-planned movement – had Rob Kearney, Garry Ringrose, Robbie Henshaw and Seán Cronin (twice) making inroads. In the middle it all were half breaks and offloads by Cian Healy and O’Brien.

The try still needed a fantastic finish by James Lowe and touchline conversion from Sexton, but after 13 minutes despite the score only 10-3 in Leinster’s favour they had Toulouse well beaten. What was equally impressive was how they refused to let the French fight back into the contest.

Sexton or Owen Farrell as the guiding light remains as tough a decision as when Warren Gatland was forced to change his mind – on starting Farrell at 10 – in the middle of the Lions Test series in New Zealand two years ago.

Newcastle also has a decisive feel to their personal rivalry. Farrell has been in the ascendancy since the last meeting. That’s because neither Sexton nor Ireland fired a shot.

There were unfair expectations on Conor Murray and Sexton to save Ireland during the Six Nations. The best players in the world are there to be shot down. Murray is recovering. Sexton has just returned to the form that won him World Player of the Year.

Why is that? So much has to do with a fully functioning body.

The differences between Sexton and Farrell are minimal. Farrell is a stronger man. Sexton likes to go for it more often. If he sees an opportunity he won’t hesitate. This can prove crucial in a tight game, especially when your team is on the back foot. Remember Cardiff over St Patrick’s weekend when Sexton spotted space up the left touchline and almost sent Jacob Stockdale away for a spectacular try?

It so nearly swung the momentum Ireland’s way.

Perhaps the influence either man has on the Champions Cup final will be dictated by others, like Scott Fardy and Maro Itoje.

The hardest decisions to make in elite sport come at the peak of your season and normally when everything has the potential to go wrong. Peter O’Mahony found himself in such a position on Saturday. It’s crucial that the chief decision-maker can solve the problem. O’Mahony’s pack could not budge Saracens men off the ball in the way Fardy and Furlong were doing to Toulouse players.

The battle for European domination will come down to this moment

Furlong reminded me of Brad Thorn in 2012 shifting entire bodies off our ball. This led directly to Luke McGrath’s excellent performance. His passing was razor sharp, his box kicking quality, but ball presentation is what makes a scrumhalf shine.

Munster, in their pomp, were able to deliver on this non-negotiable every time they took the field; clean ball for Peter Stringer was paramount to their success. Alan Quinlan, Anthony Foley and David Wallace knew that to have any chance of beating the best French and English clubs they needed to remove enemy bodies from the ruck. Quinny, Axel and Wally knew they were strolling 40 metres up field for a lineout if Messrs A, B and C were cleared away for Strings to feed Rog on the front foot.

Like Saracens and Leinster are doing in 2019.

Ominous threat

Saracens, like England in Dublin, are intent on winning 80 one-minute battles. You see it in their reactions to each mini-victory. The sound of triumphant English voices celebrating a defensive set in Irish territory is still ringing in Leinster players’ ears.

The same sounds Munster men heard. Same voices in the gloom. Farrell, Itoje, George Kruis, Jamie George, the Vunipola brothers and that’s before we mention the brilliance of Liam Williams.

The same frustrations permeated through both games. It’s the same ominous threat Leinster must survive.

I could be describing next week’s Game of Thrones episode. Similar enough stakes.

Saracens have two significant matches away to Wasps and home to Exeter before the final whereas Leinster effectively have two weekends off. The Exeter game could be a dead rubber as both clubs might have secured a home Premiership semi-final. That depends on the Wasps result so, either way, the aforementioned Englishmen will be worked in the coming fortnight.

Leinster can zero in on the final. They will brace themselves for the possibility of being six or seven points down and struggling to stay afloat as Saracens hammer away at their try line early in the second half. The battle for European domination will come down to this moment. Sexton, with a little help from Fardy, will be tasked with making the decision that gets them out of trouble.

Something we’ve rarely if ever seen before will be required.