RACING/Oaks preview: Aidan O'Brien sends four fillies into the Oaks on a high-powered recce ahead of tomorrow's Epsom Derby.
Michael Kinane has picked the Irish 1,000 Guineas runner-up Quarter Moon as the most likely point girl from the Ballydoyle quartet but as picks go, that was the easy one.
Kinane finally plumped for Hawk Wing over High Chaparral at 1.00 p.m. yesterday and could have been forgiven for immediately starting to pray the weather forecasters are right.
A total of 37mms of rain descended on the famous racecourse in the previous 24 hours leaving the ground "soft" yesterday.
However, the clerk of the course, Andrew Cooper, gave an upbeat forecast and said: "I would not discount Saturday getting to the soft side of good. I don't think the description we'll be leading with soft come Saturday."
No one will be hoping he is right more than Kinane and O'Brien who would ideally like better conditions for all their Epsom contenders.
"The Oaks will tell us a lot about the ground and that is important," O'Brien said yesterday evening with one eye already on the colt's race.
He will run three of the 12 in the Derby and it is long odds-on that either Hawk Wing or High Chaparral will follow up Galileo's scintillating victory of last year.
Shahtoush and Imagine have already provided the Ballydoyle trainer with Oaks success and his excellent record could well improve even more today.
Quarter Moon is the shortestpriced of the Irish quartet despite worries about stamina and a rather headstrong manner of racing.
"We hope she will settle in the race but obviously until they run on it, it's impossible to know if they will stay the mile and a half," he said.
"They are all in good form and even if they would like better ground, they are by Sadler's Wells so hopefully they will be able to handle it."
Quarter Moon doesn't have that much in hand on Starbourne on Irish Guineas form and Kinane does face a formidable task in getting her to settle. But if he manages it, Quarter Moon will be a danger to the principal opposition.
The betting market indicates they will be the Musidora winner Islington and Godolphin's 1,000 Guineas heroine Kazzia.
The latter's classic triumph was unexpected but the pace she showed to win at Newmarket must create a doubt about her ability to last out a mile and a half in testing conditions.
Islington could provide a bigger threat given an admirable York success where she led plenty far out and held off the maiden Spinnette.
But it's the latter's stable companion Mellow Park that could prove to be the dark filly in the race.
Owned by Seamus Burns, this sister to the Italian Derby winner and Melbourne Cup runner-up Central Park is guaranteed to stay and act on the going. However, it is the impression she made when winning the Lupe by a staggering 11 lengths that hinted at the potential to come.
Mellow Park was awesome at Goodwood, where she handled the downhill run well, and should still be improving. Even against the best of Godolphin and Ballydoyle, she could be the each-way value of the race.
The other Group One contest could also see a shock from theGerman stable of Peter Schiergen.
Boreal boasts Group One form behind Morshdi last year and ran a blinder at Nad Al Sheba in March behind Nayef. Throw in an ability to go on the soft and the continental raider could surprise the Godolphin camp.
Frankie Dettori has ignored Newmarket form and gone for Kutub over Marienbard but that one's ability to stay is not as obvious.
It's worth betting though that no rider will be examining the ground more than Kinane on Pawn Broker. A lot is riding on what he finds.
