A year on The Wear:Superficially, Roy Keane and Harold Macmillan have little in common. Macmillan, British prime minister in the late 1950s and early 60s, was educated at Eton and fought on the Somme, but for a man born into privilege in Chelsea, he somehow ended up as the MP for a North-east constituency, Stockton-on-Tees. So he knew the area, but what has resurfaced prominently - and pertinently - is Macmillan's response to a question about the most difficult aspect of being a statesman: "Events, my dear boy, events."

As he reflected on his most challenging week yet as a manger - his 52nd, it so happens - Keane might just identify with Macmillan. Today, his first official trip back to Old Trafford as Sunderland manager, his first competitive game against Manchester United since he joined them as a 21-year-old in 1993, was deemed an event the moment Sunderland secured promotion in May. Setanta swooped when the fixture list arrived.

That is understandable. Keane came to mean so much to United over 12 unforgettable, triumphal years that he will be lauded and applauded as he walks out of the Old Trafford tunnel this afternoon. Virtually since the day he left he has been spoken of as Alex Ferguson's successor.

But, touched as he could be by the reception, it may feel like a long walk to the away dugout and an even longer one back. Because today's return-of-Keane event has been overtaken by others.

The first of these came at Wigan a fortnight ago. That 3-0 defeat had alarm bells ringing, almost off the wall.

Seven days later came a 2-0 defeat at home to Liverpool. No shame in that but no points either. Then, on Tuesday, another 3-0 defeat, this time at Luton, venue of last season's Championship success. After the match Keane revealed that captain Dean Whitehead is out for six months or more. Then, from Nottingham, came the news that Clive Clarke, on loan at Leicester but a Sunderland player, was seriously ill in the dressingroom.

Personally, Clarke's sudden and acute deterioration in a week when the Seville midfielder Antonio Puerta collapsed during a match and died three days after, was the most disturbing happening.

But, professionally, Keane and Sunderland also had reason for intensified concern. The level of performance at Kenilworth Road from a Sunderland side that was recognisably first-team meant that Keane said he did not sleep well when he got home. He would have kicked the cat if he had one, though he said he would never kick his famous dog.

On Wednesday he went back to work on Wearside, trying to bring in new players, with anxiety in his head and a false smile on his face. "Fake it to make it, as they say," he said.

By Thursday, Kenwyne Jones, Danny Higginbotham and Ian Harte were recruited and Keane was feeling marginally better.

The first two will bring the "physical presence" which Keane feels the current squad lacks, Harte will be back-up.

Keane looked like a man getting to grips with events.

By seven o'clock tonight we will know just how well he has done that. For the record, Sunderland have not won at Old Trafford since 1968 and Boylesports, whose logo is on the jersey, have them at 12 to 1 to win. Yesterday's Sunderland Echo predicted a 3-0 loss, adding: "Sunderland's season proper starts after this weekend."

Just as everyone in Manchester agrees Keane will be afforded a favourite son's reception, they all think he will then see his new team beaten, possibly thumped. In Sunderland, and it is beginning to be spoken, the fear is that Keane has not spent his €55 million well.

Right back Greg Halford is cited, he was sent off at Luton, so is Kieran Richardson, another going back to Old Trafford. A developing theme on Wearside is that the gap between the Premier League and the Championship is now a gulf and players cannot bridge it as they did in the past. The riposte is "Reading".

It is a worthwhile debate, and the men of the Drumaville consortium backing Sunderland may need to be stout during it; whereas on his nightly phone-in show in the North-east, Newcastle legend Malcolm Macdonald had his first "Keane Out" call this week.

The fickle nature of football fans is one of life's guarantees, of course, and it is encouraged by this type of show: whatever you say, say something. Keane, like every manager, has to work against this backdrop. Ferguson described it as a "media war" this week.

Much of it can be ignored or obscured, allowing a manager breathing space to contemplate. And when Keane does that, he thinks of Sunderland as his future, long-term. On Thursday he was quizzed thoroughly about today's return and while he spoke engagingly of United and Ferguson, Keane was stressing the future not the past. "I was born to play for Man United, I was born to manage Sunderland," he said.

There was no use of "fate" or "destiny" but Keane has some affinity with that concept. For a man of such self-determination it is a bit of a contradiction, but so be it.

"It was just part of my path in life, without a doubt," he said of United. "If you had said to me when I left, within a year I would pack in and be manager of Sunderland, then . . . but sometimes you believe the man upstairs has great plans."

He did not sound like someone using Sunderland as a rehearsal before the main event.

Keane and Sunderland have their own and part of it surrounds Keane discussing a new contract soon, once the season has settled down. His current deal expires at the end of next season and that does not appear enough time for him to achieve what he wants at Sunderland. So a new one will be offered and accepted. That is assuming Sunderland's autumn is not overtaken by a bad winter.