Cardiff need win over Scarlets to avoid play-off blues

RUGBY: Leinster v Warriors:IN PARSING through the permutations with regards to tonight's three remaining games, it should be pointed out the first criteria in separating teams that finish on the same number of points is that primacy goes to the club with the greatest number of victories in the regular season.

Cardiff, currently in the fourth and final semi-final berth – they would play away to Munster next weekend if the table was to stay the same – must beat the Scarlets at Parc y Scarlets. The home side can overtake their visitors if they win and deny the Blues a losing bonus point. Nothing other than a Scarlets victory will sustain their interest in the tournament.

Waiting in the wings are the Ospreys, who will fancy the prospect of eking out a bonus point victory over Aironi at the Stadio Zaffanella.

If they manage that, and Cardiff and Ulster both lose without bonus points, then they will jump from fifth to third and as a result take on Leinster at the RDS next weekend in a repeat of last year’s final and venue.

If the Ospreys win without a bonus point they would qualify in fourth place, providing Cardiff lose to the Scarlets. Ulster have more wins than any of the aspiring teams below them in the table, a deciding factor if teams finish level on points.

Cardiff have made a number of changes for the game at the Scarlets. With Tom James, Leigh Halfpenny and Richard Mustoe out, Jamie Roberts moves to the wing, with Dafydd Hewitt at centre.

In the forwards, Sam Warburton moves to blindside, with Martyn Williams at seven. Michael Paterson is in the second row in place of the injured Bradley Davies, while Sam Hobbs starts in the front row in place of the injured John Yapp.

Cardiff director of rugby David Young said: “We are still fourth, so we know what we have to do. We have to go there and win, it’s a difficult place to go to, we know that, but at the end of the day if you want to get into the top four you have to go to these places and win.”

Wales outhalf Stephen Jones is in the pivotal role at 10 for the home side, with Morgan Stoddart at fullback and George North and Sean Lamont on the wings.

SCARLETS: M Stoddart; G North, R King, S Williams, S Lamont; S Jones, T Knoyle; I Thomas, M Rees (capt), R Thomas; L Reed, D Day; R McCusker, J Edwards, B Morgan.

CARDIFF BLUES: D Fish; J Roberts, C Laulala, D Hewitt, C Czekaj; D Parks, R Rees; S Hobbs, G Williams, T Filise; M Paterson, P Tito; S Warburton, M Williams, X Rush.