Micheál Martin has been no stranger to the gauntlet during his 15 years as leader of Fianna Fáil. There have been half a dozen or more challenging moments in his leadership.
He survived the party’s loss of six seats in the 2020 general election following his poor performances on the hustings. In the most perilous moment for Martin, he came through the fallout from Fianna Fáil’s disastrous presidential campaign last year when its candidate Jim Gavin, the former Dublin GAA football manager, exited the race over a rent issue with a former tenant.
This week, another challenge emerged from an event that did not appear, on its surface, to pose a career-ending threat.
The Government’s handling of the fuel protests was an unlikely trigger for a leadership challenge. The actions of fuel protesters had divided the country, mostly along urban and rural lines. The tactics and rhetoric used were reminiscent of the “gilets jaunes” grassroots protests witnessed in France in 2018 and 2019.
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The post-Easter protests against rising fuel prices caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran led to blockades of Whitegate refinery in Cork and the ports of Galway and Foynes. The protests brought the centre of Dublin to a standstill for a number of days.
For the two Government parties – Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – it was a tricky political path to negotiate. To cave in to the demands of a sectional group of protesters using ransom tactics would have been a disastrous concession by the Coalition.
How the Government responded exposed a fissure within Fianna Fáil. Some TDs felt strongly that the approach to end the blockades was wrong and that the threats of using the Army to lift the blockades during the protests was uncalled for, as were the use of pepper spray and the deployment of Garda public order units.
The split transcended the divide between supporters and critics ; it showed a clear urban-rural divide within the party.
“They were our people, country people, our grassroots,” said one newly elected TD who went to the protests and spoke anonymously.
“Rather than forcing them out, the Government should have made more efforts to talk them in from the bridge.”
Another experienced rural TD, who wished not to be named, acknowledged that the protests “got out of hand” but said there were “very many normal, decent people involved”.
“But every time the Taoiseach spoke, it just inflamed the situation. You could see it in all the Fianna Fáil WhatsApp groups. The same message was coming through. Party supporters in rural Ireland were really angry.”
If anyone hoped the anger might build to a bigger revolt within the party, the early efforts towards that goal had a faltering start. An effort was made on Saturday to gather disaffected party backbenchers in Kilkenny on Sunday afternoon. But it had been organised too hastily and did not happen.
An emergency Government meeting was convened on Sunday afternoon, which approved a €500 million package of supports to people affected by the fuel price increases.
Unlike Fine Gael, which had a parliamentary party meeting on Saturday on the eve of the package being announced, Fianna Fáil’s was not held until Monday, after the announcement.
[ Micheál Martin probably wasn’t anticipating a second surprise attack from withinOpens in new window ]
That added salt to the wound and bolstered an argument from his opponents that Martin’s style was top-down and not collegiate.
The five-hour meeting on Monday was attended by an estimated 60 people. It did hear some criticism, but it was muted.
What lit the fuse was a letter signed by the three youngest TDs – James O’Connor of Galway East, Ryan O’Meara of Tipperary North, and Albert Dolan of Galway West – and published on Wednesday. It referred to “real and deep concern” with the Government’s response to the fuel protests.
Others quickly weighed in, including former ceann comhairle Seán Ó Fearghaíl, Limerick City TD Willie O’Dea, Cork North TD Pádraig O’Sullivan and Senator Anne Rabbitte. They sought an urgent meeting to discuss the “loss of connectivity” with grassroots supporters.
Suddenly, there was talk of a possible leadership challenge.
A long-time critic of Martin, Fianna Fáil TD for Carlow-Kilkenny John McGuinness, said on Newstalk’s Claire Byrne Show that a change in leadership was required. Opponents said they were confident they could gather the 12 signatures to table a motion of no confidence.
[ Fianna Fáil backbenchers are at it again as pressure mounts on MartinOpens in new window ]
“There was a series of ill-judged actions that showed the sort of top-down leadership thing which he promised to change,” said a prominent rebel who did not wish to be named.
“He gave the impression of listening in the aftermath of the Jim Gavin fiasco and then reverted to form, which is what will always happen anyway.”
Within the wider parliamentary party, among those who did not feel a leadership change was warranted there is still a sense of a democratic deficit within the party.
“I don’t believe we need a change of leader right now,” said Shay Brennan, a TD for Dublin-Rathdown.
“What we do need is a change of approach. Decisions that affect this party and, by extension, the people we represent, cannot continue to be made at the top and handed down as a fait accompli. That’s not how Fianna Fáil works.”
From talking privately to TDs and Senators, it was clear the “rebels” intended to put pressure on putative successors such as Jim O’Callaghan and Dara Calleary to show their hand. O’Callaghan himself had come under criticism for his comments about bringing the army in during the protests. Some of those opposed to Martin said the succession race was now “fluid” and O’Callaghan, the Minister for Justice, was no longer a shoo-in as his potential replacement.
As Martin flew out to Berlin on Thursday morning to meet German chancellor Friedrich Merz, the possibility of a move seemed real. By the time his motorcade arrived at the federal chancellery, the Bundeskanzleramt, in the centre of the capital, it was all over.
That morning, The Irish Times sent questions to all the party’s 47 TDs and Senators. The responses that came back were decisive: Martin had the numbers to survive a confidence vote. He had the backing of 16 Ministers plus six TDs, mostly based in Dublin.
Notably, 25 TDs did not respond, most of whom were from rural constituencies.
At the press conference with Merz, Martin cut a relaxed figure. Asked about any risk to his leadership, he said: “My position is not under threat in any shape or form.”
Talking to Fianna Fáil TDs and Senators this week, there is a clear sense that Martin has mishandled a lot of situations in this Government term, including the deal with the Lowry-led Independents, Jim Gavin’s candidacy and, now, the response to the fuel protests.
“He has lost political capital for sure,” said a senior Minister. “There’s no doubt about it.”
But the question is, is it enough to warrant a change of leadership and taoiseach, with Ireland assuming the six-month presidency of the EU at the start of July?
Senior Ministers and Dublin-based TDs largely believe now is not the right time.
“I don’t think the party is ready for that because he has led for so long and I don’t think the party has begun to think about his replacement,” Dublin South-West TD John Lahart told The Irish Times this week.
Others are not so sure. Ó Fearghaíl, the former ceann comhairle, believes it is still a live issue.
“The public need to see us sit down and discuss the leadership issue. In all of the emails we have been receiving, leadership has been part of the complaints that people have been expressing to us,” he said.
Another TD who wants leadership changes said a motion was “still on the table”.
Political analyst Derek Mooney, a former adviser with Fianna Fáil, says a leadership challenge will likely happen at some juncture, perhaps now or after the two byelections – in Dublin Central and Galway West – in the second half of May, but Martin will probably have enough support to survive.
“He will get through this one. But there is no doubt in my mind that he will not be leading Fianna Fáil into the next election. The question that TDs are asking themselves is: at what point do they make the move?” says Mooney.
“I think there’s now an acceptance that Micheál would win it, not by a large majority. His leadership would be damaged, but the question is, does it achieve a mood for change? That’s a judgment call a group of TDs will need to make over the weekend.”
But there is a rider.
“It’s worth bearing in mind that the motion of no confidence that Micheál Martin put down against Brian Cowen in 2010 failed, but Cowen was gone within weeks,” adds Mooney.
