Momentum behind a challenge to Taoiseach Micheál Martin from his party was faltering on Thursday night as Fianna Fáil Ministers and TDs rallied behind him.
Of the 48 Fianna Fáil TDs, 22 responded to a survey by The Irish Times with declarations of support for the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil leader. None said they would back a motion of no confidence.
Though 25 TDs remained silent, declining the opportunity to express support for their party leader, Martin has the backing of his Ministers and, crucially, a group of backbench TDs.
If a motion of no confidence – which requires 12 signatures – is put down, Martin would need the support of 25 TDs for a majority. On the evidence of the survey, he would have 22 plus his own vote, putting him within touching distance of victory.
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Extensive soundings in the parliamentary party on Thursday suggested the danger of a heave against the Taoiseach has abated. However, there was a strong sense among many who spoke to The Irish Times that the question could be revisited after the EU presidency next year.
Speaking in Berlin, where he was meeting German chancellor Friedrich Merz, Martin said he did not feel his position was under threat “in any shape or form”. Asked if recent dissatisfaction would put pressure on his leadership of Fianna Fáil, he said: “No, it won’t.”
The flurry of speculation about a challenge to Martin’s position was prompted by a letter from three young backbench TDs – James O’Connor, Ryan O’Meara and Albert Dolan – that was critical of the party’s approach during the fuel protests and restated familiar complaints about his style of leadership.
Subsequently, The Irish Times contacted all Fianna Fáil TDs with the exception of Martin to ask them if they would support a motion of no confidence in his leadership of the party.
Of these 47 TDs, 22 responded to confirm their support for Martin to stay on as leader. This number included 16 Cabinet Ministers and Ministers of State. But 25, mostly rural, TDs – who have been under the most pressure from the fuel protests – did not respond to attempts to contact them.
No TD responded to say they would vote against the Taoiseach should a motion of no confidence be tabled at a parliamentary party meeting.
Carlow-Kilkenny TD John McGuinness, a long-time critic of Martin, did not respond to the survey but told Newstalk radio on Thursday: “We need new leadership, quite frankly.”
The six backbenchers who responded were all from Dublin and all indicated they would not vote against Martin if a no-confidence motion was tabled.
They are Catherine Ardagh, Cormac Devlin, Shane Moynihan, John Lahart, Paul McAuliffe and Shay Brennan.
Lahart’s intervention is significant as he is seen as an ally of potential future leader Jim O’Callaghan.
He said the last few weeks had brought Martin’s leadership “into very sharp focus” and said “the possibility he might not be taoiseach became a possibility in a more acute way than before” but he backed Martin to remain on as the party’s leader.
“For the first time, I started reflecting on what political life would be like without him, and I don’t think we’re ready for that,” he said.
“I don’t think the party is ready for that because he has led for so long and I don’t think the party has begun to think about his replacement.”
Lahart said Martin staying on as leader “guarantees the country leadership in the immediate period ahead, which is going to be turbulent”.
He added: “The party needs to think seriously about planning for the future.”
