One couldn’t quite call it a U-turn, but if any course correction was under consideration on Ireland’s vote on Mercosur, that has certainly been kiboshed.
The intervention of Minister of State for Agriculture Michael Healy-Rae has put paid to any chance that Ireland could vote for the contentious trade deal between the EU and a group of South American countries.
In Thursday’s Irish Times, the Kerry TD made his expectations clear: “We want the Government not to abstain, not to vote Yes, we want them to vote No – no matter what anybody else is doing.”
Note the use of the third person to describe a Government in which he himself is a Minister.
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The simple reality facing Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil was that the political costs of supporting the deal were much more tangible and risky than those of opposing it.
Voting for the deal – which looks likely to go through anyway – would have kept the Irish copybook unblotted in Brussels.
The annoyance of the European Commission was immediately apparent through its representative in Ireland, Peter Power, who told RTÉ’s Today with David McCullagh programme of his “major disappointment”, pointing to concessions the Government and farmers had achieved in light of sometimes “exaggerated” concerns.
This will be uncomfortable for Ireland, which likes to present itself as a reliable, pro-trade member state – a reputation that has been deployed during recent shocks such as Brexit and the wrangling over Donald Trump’s tariff agenda.
[ Ireland will vote against Mercosur trade deal, Taoiseach and Tánaiste confirmOpens in new window ]
Voting against the largest trade deal contemplated by the bloc – not to mention a flagship project for European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen – will dent that credibility.
In Brussels, where the political equation of alliance is always being balanced, it will be a black mark.
These things are real and they matter.
But for voters in Ireland, they are remote and abstract. And when it comes to the realpolitik of a Coalition that rests in large part on the support of rural Independent TDs and Ministers, the politics stacked up in one direction only.
The backlash from farmers and rural communities – and the damage to the political credibility of a Coalition that pledged to oppose the deal in its programme for government would have been significant.
What is the Mercosur trade deal?
There was also the risk that one, or more, Independents could formally sever their ties with the Government. Michael Healy-Rae has a native instinct for political communication, but it didn’t take an expert to read the subtext to his comment on Thursday that he “wouldn’t go talking about bringing down the Government, but what I would say is it’s a lot more serious than people think”.
Message received.
Healy-Rae is also a skilled populist who knows his electorate. These sorts of outcomes are always possible in those circumstances.
But would this have endangered the Government? Probably not. It needs 88 votes to govern. It has, notionally, 94 – 85 drawn from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, supplemented by nine votes from regional Independents and the two Healy-Rae brothers.
If some Independents assessed that a vote for Mercosur would damage their brands sufficiently, they could have jumped ship.
Recent political history is studded with government TDs who made that calculation over a hospital, a budget cut or any other issue and decamped.
Most coalitions went on, but the visible depletion in momentum and authority would have been a big problem for Taoiseach Micheál Martin in particular.
It was Fine Gael leader Simon Harris who wondered aloud in December about the usefulness of “performative politics”, suggesting Ireland’s opposition could be contingent on having enough allies to block the deal.
But Fine Gael and Independent sources assessed that Martin was most open to consider a change in Ireland’s position, given credence by comments on Wednesday that seemed to leave the door open to such a change.
[ Government ‘failed utterly’ to stop Mercosur deal, says Mary Lou McDonaldOpens in new window ]
The occupant of the Taoiseach’s office is usually as preoccupied with the State’s interests internationally as with domestic politics. However, the home front has to be accommodated. And aside from the Independents, the competition between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil for rural votes is fierce.
Compared to their relationship with the Green Party in the previous coalition administration, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil report relatively peaceful relations with the Independents, who are seen as low-maintenance and businesslike.
But Independents have already voted against the Government – and irked their partners by asserting last year that their support was on a “case-by-case” basis.
One has to mind one’s majority, even more so when dealing with political sole traders. They have flexed their muscles and shown that their limits must be respected.
