Concessions to a rapidly developing movement can backfire if they are made too late. This classic political lesson is being learned by Hong Kong's chief executive Carrie Lam as she tries to manage the city-state's deepening protests. Her agreement to withdraw the extradition Bill which created them three months ago is not sufficient to quell demands for an independent inquiry into official and police violence and for universal suffrage to elect her successor. "Too little too late," say the protesters. A courageous and determined effort is needed to resolve the conflict.
Xi is caught between his need to preserve party authority and prevent dissent spreading to mainland China
Lam is fully aware of the constraints on her from Beijing, as she admitted in leaked remarks to a local business group. Hong Kong's Basic Law of 1997 commits it to the formula "one country, two systems", putting its leaders under the tutelage of the Chinese Communist Party. Until now, she has been allowed little leeway by its leader Xi Jinping to withdraw the Bill or resign, as she would like to do. Xi is caught between his need to preserve party authority and prevent dissent spreading to mainland China and his awareness that a repressive intervention would have huge international implications for his country, especially when it wants to avoid a trade war with the US.
If a formula can be found the most radical demand, for universal suffrage, could be negotiated
The protest movement has exploited this dilemma and the authorities' clunky response with skill, daring and imagination. Huge peaceful demonstrations made up of all ages and social groups have alternated with surprise symbolic actions under a fluid leadership. Police brutality and proxy attacks by local gangs have angered the population, especially when concessions seem to come after violence rather than as part of a rational dialogue. Demonstrators are inspired by international examples from Ukraine to the Middle East and vilified in nervous Chinese propaganda.
Withdrawal of the extradition Bill nevertheless creates an opportunity for more constructive negotiations. Lam’s offer to launch an independent inquiry into the events has positive elements, as does her wish to create a dialogue platform with the protesters. If a formula can be found the most radical demand, for universal suffrage, could be negotiated. Lam is convinced Beijing has set its face against any imminent intervention. In that case she deserves more space to find a way to create such a process.
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A large movement like this consists of many different interests and political affiliations. Most Hongkongers would prefer to resolve these issues peacefully rather than on the streets. Lam needs to harness that desire, identify groups willing to co-operate with her and put forward a more genuine case for reconciliation and change, perhaps by an offer to drop charges against arrested protesters. The alternative would see a downward spiral in the city’s economy and social cohesion and a growing threat of direct Chinese intervention.