DRAPIER was somewhat surprised to hear Bertie Ahern making what might be called provisional overtures to the Labour Party about the possibility of a coalition government after the next election.
What was less surprising was the reaction of most of the Fianna Fail backbenchers, and front benchers for that matter. There was no way they wanted any such arrangement and, in particular, they did not want it signalled before an election because they considered it unhelpful to their chances.
The average Fianna Fail deputy does not expect Labour to do well at the next election. There is a general expectation, shared even within the Labour Party, that Labour may be lucky to hold half the seats it has. Within 24 hours Bertie was backpedalling with excuses, such as the failure of the media to understand what he was saying and quoting him out of context. The real explanation is that Bertie got it wrong, and his backbenchers showed a better feel for the electoral situation than he did.
Dermot Ahern was sent out during the week to do an interview on Morning Ireland with a view to trying to kill the story. He was asked how Fianna Fail could be equally happy in coalition with either the Progressive Democrats or Labour when those two parties stood for very different things. Dermot waffled but could not explain away the perception that Fianna Fail is more interested in power than policy and will live with virtually anyone that can deliver power to it.
The general election could be 12 months away, or even more, but the manoeuvring has already started. It will, of course, intensify as time passes and as the media stir things up. Newspapers thrive on elections and on talk of them. The circumstances of this particular Government, however, dictate that a general election at a later rather than an earlier date is the more likely.
Mary Harney was quick to seize her opportunity in Cork during the week when she reiterated her line that the electorate had a choice of junior partner in the election as well as a choice of senior partner. Mary obviously feels that it does not do her or her party any damage to be pitted against Labour as the possible No 2 in a coalition.
Memories in Fianna Fail are bitter when they recall how Dick Spring torpedoed the last FF/Labour government. They foresee much less difficulty between Bertie and Mary. The old antagonists like Reynolds and O'Malley are passing from centre stage.
Drapier fears that we may be back at, or even behind, Square One where the North is concerned. Anyone visiting there in the past two months could not help but notice a marked deterioration in the whole position and a frightening increase in tension.
The depth of the community divisions is reflected in the religious boycotts being organised against businesses on both sides.
There are appalling implications in the supporters of a soccer team being prevented from attending a match on purely religious and political grounds. The potential for horrendous violence can be openly seen in the death threats against Billy Wright and his colleague.
The reaction in Portadown was especially chilling, with two or three thousand people, including the Rev William McCrea MP and the Armagh Grand Master of the Orange Order, coming out to support one of the most hardline loyalists against his own organisation.
It is in a situation like this that men and women of reason tend to get sidelined. Moderate parties feel shattered. The prospects for the talks which are due to start again on Monday cannot be very promising. No progress was made before the summer, and the events of the last few months in the North are not conducive to any improvement.
In case we think that the North is the only place with violence or potential for violence, it is worth reflecting on the latest in a long series of contract killings which took place on the Dublin quays on Thursday night. More than a dozen of these murders have taken place in Dublin in less than 18 months. Not one single person has been charged, let alone convicted, in respect of any of the murders.
There are people in Dublin who decide who should live and who should die. The price of a life is reputed to be as low as a few thousand pounds.
There can be few places in the world where hired murderers and those who hire them, are safer than in Dublin. How long is it all going to go on? Inadequate legislation can hardly be blamed for what is now happening.
ONE of the stranger occurrences during the summer was the eviction of a family from their homes and farm at An Grianan in Co Donegal. The methods used by the sheriff were extraordinary. He assembled a large group of young men, many wearing balaclavas.
Their methods were neither gentle nor subtle but were reminiscent of eviction parties in the 19th century throwing the tenantry on to the road.
But most remarkable was the fact that at this time of rampant crime, murders and contract killings, the authorities were able to gather up large numbers of gardai for a full day to ensure that the eviction went smoothly and that the sheriff's eviction party did not meet with any resistance from the Grahams or their relatives.
Drapier finds it curious that the Minister for Justice has resources like this at her disposal; for a purpose that has nothing to do with the criminal law but is carried out on behalf of an Australian owned bank. No wonder Drapier's old friend, Paddy Harte, was so incensed that he found it necessary during August to put down a motion in the Dail condemning this eviction and the methods used.
The Irish State may not be able to protect the right to life of its citizens but the rights of private property are a different matter.