So Mr John Bruton will lead Fine Gael and the alternative government into the next general election. He handsomely saw off the no confidence motion from his challenger, Mr Austin Deasy, at yesterday's hastily-convened parliamentary party meeting. He reasserted his leadership of Fine Gael by a large majority - the number who voted against him is disputed - and emerged to claim that a comprehensive and clear-cut decision had been made; the party had been strengthened after a great debate.
The margin of Mr Bruton's victory on a motion from a maverick backbench TD was not the real issue at yesterday's meeting, however, least of all among those worried members of Fine Gael who despair of their leader's permanent inability to score points over the Taoiseach, Mr Bertie Ahern. Mr Deasy's move to change the leadership took them unawares. It was ill judged in timing and in the manner of its execution; there was no declared challenger. But that is not to say that many members of the parliamentary party do not share some of the sentiments expressed by Mr Deasy, without supporting his motion.
The best thing that the Fianna Fail/Progressive Democrats Coalition has going for it is the lack of an alternative government in the run-up to the election. For this reason alone, Mr Deasy's motion may serve a useful purpose for Mr Bruton. The Government is beset by problems on all fronts at this time - transport, inflation, refugees, teachers, strikes, taxis - on top of its monumental misjudgement last May in attempting to appoint Mr Hugh O'Flaherty to the position of vice-president of the European Investment Bank. Yet, Fine Gael has not only failed to gain at the Government's expense but has wavered from 18 per cent to 22 per cent in the opinion polls for most of this year. Mr Bruton's personal satisfaction rating has consistently been the lowest of the main party leaders.
There are many reasons why Mr Bruton and Fine Gael have failed to gain political ground. The first is the lack of self-conviction in the party. There is an absence of collegiality on the front bench. There is a lack of co-ordination and clarity about some decisions. The party is now run by a management committee - Mr Bruton and Mr Richard Bruton, Mrs Nora Owen, Mr Charlie Flanagan, Mr Phil Hogan and the general secretary, Mr Tom Curran. Some of the party's top performers, like Mr Michael Noonan and Mr Alan Dukes, are often excluded from the decision-making process and the presentation of policy. The committee decided recently that there would be a free vote on abortion, only to change its mind subsequently. The committee embraced the costly concept of the Celtic Snail versus the Celtic Tiger and surprised some members by launching it with the party's programme, Plan for the Nation, last Sunday.
The remarkable feature of yesterday's meeting, according to both sides, was the tone of the debate. The contributions were moderate and balanced. Some, like Mr Dukes, suggested that it would be wrong to believe that the party would be transformed if the leader was changed. Mr Ivan Yates held that social partnership was making it more difficult for the Opposition to get across its message. The challenge to Mr Bruton and Fine Gael lies somewhere in their own diagnosis of their position on the political stage. The damaging events of yesterday are a wake-up call.