UK excess deaths since start of pandemic surpass 100,000, data suggests

British health secretary says he will work from home for next six days

The number of deaths in the UK accelerated at the beginning of January as the effects of December’s wave of coronavirus cases raised mortality to levels not seen since last spring, according to official figures released on Tuesday.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said that 17,751 deaths were registered across England and Wales in the week ending January 8th, the highest total since the final week of April last year.

The jump in mortality rates suggests that since the pandemic began, the UK’s total excess deaths – the number above the previous five-year average – has risen to well over 100,000, according to a Financial Times (FT) model that brings official figures, which have a two-week lag, up to date.

The government reported on Tuesday that another 1,610 people had died within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 - the highest daily figure since the pandemic began.


However, the figure is unlikely to be a genuine daily record because many people died at the peak of the first wave without being tested. Excess deaths, which measures the total number of fatalities compared with normal levels, is not dependent on the levels of testing and indicated more than 2,000 daily deaths in the UK last April.

The delay between infection with Covid-19 and death – typically about a month – means that the vaccination programme will not yet have had an effect on mortality rates.

With the number of deaths still rising, even as infection rates decline and the vaccination rollout progresses rapidly, ministers have warned that relaxations in lockdown restrictions are unlikely in the short term.

Health secretary Matt Hancock said on Monday that "we've got to watch the data", before considering lifting strict rules on social distancing. "We've got to see the number of deaths coming down and sadly we haven't seen that yet," he said.

The UK has one of the highest rates of excess deaths in western Europe, alongside Spain, Italy and Belgium – although mortality rates in parts of South and Central America are significantly higher still.

After the pandemic pushed death rates above the seasonal average in March last year, Britain experienced a sharp wave of excess fatalities in April and May, raising the total number to roughly 65,000. The increase has been slower during the second wave of coronavirus infections, with excess death registrations hitting 94,745 by the week ending January 8th.

With those figures almost two weeks out of date, an FT model based on the relationship between excess deaths and the daily Covid-19 fatality announcements from the government, estimated that there have now been 106,300 excess deaths in the country since mid-March.

Before the publishing of the ONS data, excess mortality in the second wave of the epidemic had been lower than the daily Covid-19 rates announced by the government. This was used by those critical of the government’s lockdown measures to justify loosening restrictions. But experts said the lower level of excess deaths was likely due to social distancing leading to a drop in mortality from other respiratory diseases.

"The anti-Covid measures have been enough to stop flu in its tracks," said David Spiegelhalter, chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication.

However, the data released on Tuesday showed that excess death rates had risen to match the daily coronavirus death totals. Kevin McConway, emeritus professor of applied statistics at the Open University, described the latest figures as "grim, very grim" because they did not yet include data for the period in January when the daily Covid-19 death figures peaked. – Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2021