The week in Brexit: What’s on the horizon in UK and Brussels

UK

The Conservative Party conference in Manchester is focused on the message of Getting Brexit Done. But neither Boris Johnson nor his ministers are giving much away about the detailed proposal it is expected to present to the EU within days.

DUP leader Arlene Foster, who is speaking at a number of fringe events at the conference, has already set out her red lines, ruling out any further compromise on regulatory alignment or customs. Hints into the government's thinking could come at other fringe events looking at alternative arrangements to the Northern Ireland backstop.

Johnson’s closing speech on Wednesday is likely to rally the Conservative troops ahead of an election he hopes to fight on the issue of Brexit. But don’t expect any detail about the shape of the deal.

MPs at Westminster will be sitting throughout the Conservative conference and opposition party leaders are meeting regularly to discuss tactics. Although the Scottish National Party has hinted at a vote of no confidence in Johnson’s government as early as this week, there is little support for such a move among other parties.

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The so-called Remain Alliance could introduce legislation to bolster the Benn Act that obliges the prime minister to seek a delay to Brexit if he fails to secure a deal before October 19th. But the lawyer MPs who drafted the act believe it is effective as it is and that no further legislation is necessary.

The Liberal Democrats would like to bring forward from October 19th the deadline for Johnson to secure a deal but others believe he should be given a chance to negotiate with the EU according to the current timetable.

Brussels

Brexit talks (not “negotiations”) are being conducted daily at a technical level – not involving chief negotiators. These have focused on the subject matter of four “non-papers” from the UK on aspects of the Border challenges for the Northern Ireland backstop – east-west trade, customs and SPS (food and animal regulations).

Talks are supplemented at least once a week by discussions at political level involving Michel Barnier and the UK's Brexit secretary, Stephen Barclay. There may be a visit by British chief negotiator David Frost on Tuesday.

Negotiations proper will start when the UK submits written legal proposals on the backstop.

The EU says that the minimum the British paper must do is produce "legally operational proposals compatible with the withdrawal agreement" – that means uphold the principles of the Belfast Agreement in all its aspects, protect the EU's single market, and not undermine the all-Ireland economy.

Negotiators are reporting weekly to EU ambassadors (Corper), the member states’ working group on Brexit, and to MEPs.

The expectation is that any deal will have to go to meeting of General Affairs Council (Article 50) in Luxembourg on October 15th. It will prepare the agenda for the EU summit starting in Brussels on Octover 17th. That meeting may approve a further extension for the UK if requested (the decision must be unanimous), or ratify any deal.

The European Parliament will meet in a Strasbourg plenary on October 19th to ratify any agreement.

Failure to reach a deal at the summit may necessitate another emergency summit ahead of October 31st when, at midnight, the UK is due to leave the EU.

In the event that a deal has been ratified, a transition period of up to two years starts, during which the current rules will continue.