Why the Avishays are backing Kadima

MIDDLE EAST: A prosperous Jerusalem family have little hesitation in voting for Kadima, created by Ariel Sharon, in the election…

MIDDLE EAST: A prosperous Jerusalem family have little hesitation in voting for Kadima, created by Ariel Sharon, in the election, writes Nuala Haughey.

The Avishay family from Jerusalem are not typical Kadima supporters.

But then it is hard to assess just what is typical of a party founded just four months ago on the ruins of the once dominant right-wing Likud party as a personal vehicle for Israel's hugely popular prime minister, Ariel Sharon (78).

Within months of his daring move, the belligerent ex-general was stricken by a stroke and massive brain haemorrhage which has left him comatose for almost three months and unlikely ever to be able to return to active politics.

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Despite losing its leader and notwithstanding its lack of grassroots structures, if the polls are right the breakaway party is tipped to be the one that will head Israel's next coalition government following tomorrow's election. With its winning formula of unilateral separation from the Palestinians - instead of negotiations - the party has seen only a slight dip in its poll ratings under the leadership of Sharon's successor as acting prime minister, Ehud Olmert.

"The reason I'm picking Kadima is not Ehud Olmert," said Idan (24) a university student and the second-youngest of the Avishay family's three children.

Olmert, a 60-year-old lawyer and career politician, is widely seen as competent, but lacks Sharon's spark and commanding military record. "He is not the ideal prime minister but the people with him are very good," according to Idan.

When Sharon launched Kadima (Hebrew for Forward) last November, well respected and experienced ministers who supported his Gaza withdrawal defected with him, leaving a rump Likud cluster of extreme-right politicians lead by the hawkish former prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu.

For Idan and his father, Ofer (56), a retired banker who now is the accountant in his wife's prosperous tailoring business, Kadima is an attractive package.

In particular, they respect Shaul Mofaz, the hard-line defence minister, Avi Dichter, a retired head of Israel's internal security agency, Shin Bet, and the minister for justice, Tzipi Livni, the woman Olmert has already anointed as his future deputy prime minister.

"They are something new and better," said Idan's mother, Eti (50).

"Sharon tried to change things and his party wouldn't let him so he did a very good thing by leaving them alone with their mess and built a new party. I really believe in him because he was the only one who wasn't afraid to leave Gaza. Nobody stopped him. He had the power to do it and he knew what was good for us. Because of that, I stay with Kadima because I think they will do something."

The Avishays supported Sharon's bold unilateral move last summer to evacuate 8,000 Jewish settlers from the occupied Gaza Strip. Olmert has made it clear that he intends to withdraw more settlers from the West Bank while cementing Israel's control of major illegal settlement blocs and drawing Israel's permanent borders within the next four years. He says this will be done by negotiation if possible, but unilaterally if necessary, which most Israeli voters appear to think it will be.

Ofer and Eti come from families who immigrated to Israel before the state was created or when it was in its infancy who supported the Labour party and its forerunner, Mapai, which dominated successive Israeli administrations until 1977.

Eti said she voted Labour in the last election in 2003, while Idan and Ofer supported the secular liberal Shinui party, which emerged then as the third-largest party but has since lost its leader and will be lucky to secure even one seat in the next Knesset.

"The situation in Israel changes all the time; you can't say 'I'm just a Labour supporter, I'm just Likud'," said Eti.

"I'm not a very typical left wing, right wing, centre voter. I go with the situation. Whoever's good for the moment," added Ofer.

While the family is cautious about further territorial concessions in the West Bank, they are repelled by Likud's leader, Binyamin Netanyahu, whose "strong against Hamas" campaign has failed to resonate with voters.

"I'll never vote for Netanyahu because I don't trust him as prime minister," says Ofer. "He was OK as finance minister, but he's a very, very bad prime minister."

"He's too far right," adds Eti.

"He's a demagogue, is that the word?" concludes Idan.

The Avishays' youngest child, Ornat (17) is not yet able to vote. But if she could, she too would vote Kadima. "I like Tzipi Livni because she's a woman and she's very strong."

Ornat said she also liked the Green Party "but I would not vote for them because they are small and they don't have a chance."