ANALYSIS:Fianna Fáil is in crisis in Dublin and this will be a big worry for party strategists, writes AODH QUINLIVAN
IN 2004, commentators asked whether the local elections represented a historic signpost for politics in Ireland or else would prove to be little more than a temporary aberration to the trend of Fianna Fáil dominance. Now we know.
The political landscape changed dramatically this weekend.
Fianna Fáil has had a decade to forget at local government level, dropping from 39 per cent and 382 seats in 1999, to 32 per cent and 302 seats in 2004 to a projected 24 per cent and around 250 seats in 2009. In particular, Fianna Fáil has been cleaned out in urban areas and the cities.
One slight silver lining for the party is that the percentage decline in votes is not reflected in the loss of many seats, precisely because its total of outgoing councillors in the cities was so low to begin with. For example, Fianna Fáil had only one councillor on Waterford City Council and two on Limerick City Council. It held a seat in Waterford through Gary Wyse (as opposed to the outgoing Tom Murphy), who made it on the 12th count with less than 5 per cent of first preferences, but lost one of its two seats in Limerick.
Fianna Fáil is in crisis in Dublin and this will be a big worry for party strategists planning for the next general election.
With 18 per cent of the vote and approximately 12 per cent of the seats on Dublin City Council, Fianna Fáil will be nothing more than a bit-part player in the countrys largest local authority.
It has also suffered big swings in some of its traditional strongholds, like Donegal (down 14 per cent), Meath (down 6 per cent) and Clare (down 6 per cent).
Fianna Fáil’s decline in Clare, homeland of Éamon de Valera, is symbolic of a wider demise. For 76 years prior to 2004, it enjoyed continued and absolute dominance on the local council; now it is no longer the largest party in the chamber.
Brian Cowen and his colleagues can talk all they want about Fianna Fáil’s victory in the 2007 general election following a disastrous showing in the 2004 locals but the truth of the matter is that it feels different this time.
This is more than a blip or a mid-term setback; it is a watershed moment in the realignment of Ireland’s political landscape.
At some point Fianna Fáil will recover and, ironically, it can draw comfort from the example set by its biggest rivals.
Fine Gael was on its knees in 2002 and now it is riding high as the biggest party in the State for the first time in its history.
With a 5 per cent increase in first preferences, Fine Gael will win in excess of 330 seats, putting the party significantly clear of Fianna Fáil.
The national party system permeates to the local level and all parties use the local arena as a recruitment ground for future parliamentarians, which Fine Gael did successfully at both the 1979 and 2004 local elections.
The new councillors elected in these years provided the launch pad for the party’s gain of 20 Dáil seats at both succeeding general elections (in 1981 and 2007). On the back of outstanding results in the 2009 locals, Fine Gael will contest the next general election from a position of great strength.
The Labour Party did not receive the plaudits it deserved for a strong local election performance five years ago but it should on this occasion with an estimated increase in first preferences of 5 or 6 per cent.
The party will be particularly satisfied with its performance in the capital as it will be, by some margin, the largest grouping in Dublin City Council. While the party did add some candidates at the last minute to translate votes into seats, it may rue the fact that it did not run more candidates from the beginning to maximise its popularity in the pre-election opinion polls.
For Sinn Féin, the 2009 local elections were about consolidation and, for the most part, it has held its own.
There were also some dramatic successes with a doubling of its representation in Cork city (Thomas Gould and Henry Cremin joining Jonathan O’Brien and Fiona Kerins) and a breakthrough seat for Maurice Quinlivan in Limerick.
The Green Party suffered a predictable meltdown and performed terribly in the Dublin region.
As always Independents polled strongly. While people vote strategically for their preferred government at general elections, local elections are often viewed as an opportunity to take a risk and vote for a local candidate they would normally be less inclined to support.
Dr Aodh Quinlivan is a lecturer in politics in the department of government at University College Cork. He is the co-author of two recent books on Irish local government: All Politics is Local: A Guide to Local Elections in Ireland (with Liam Weeks) and Innovation and Best Practice in Irish Local Government (with Emmanuelle Schön-Quinlivan)