Union will not be unstable if Scotland leaves - Robinson

THE MAJORITY of people in Northern Ireland would favour maintaining the union with England and Wales even if Scotland voted for independence in two years’ time, Peter Robinson asserted at the weekend.

He expressed confidence that Scotland would vote against independence in the referendum scheduled for 2014, but even if it did it would not destabilise the rest of the union, he said in Oxford on Saturday. “I am confident that even if Scotland were to vote for independence it would not alter Northern Ireland’s desire to maintain the link with England and Wales,” Mr Robinson told the British-Irish Association.

The association has been meeting annually since 1972, alternately in Cambridge and Oxford, bringing politicians, church leaders, business people and academics together to privately discuss Northern Ireland and British-Irish issues. This year’s main focus was on devolution and the union.

Mr Robinson said independence for Scotland would be a step into the unknown, not only for Scotland but for England, Wales and Northern Ireland. “Experience from Ireland tells us that Scotland outside the United Kingdom, would not continue to have the same social, economic and cultural bonds with England, Wales or Northern Ireland,” he said.

“As we have seen in Northern Ireland a border is not just a line on a map. Over time it makes a profound difference to one’s sense of identity.” Mr Robinson was confident that Scottish independence would not have a constitutional effect on Northern Ireland.

“After all, if the exodus of the 26 counties to our south and west in the early part of the last century did not alter our desire to be a part of the United Kingdom, then I doubt that Scotland’s departure would do so today.

“It is hard to envisage a majority of people in Scotland voting to end the union when there is no longer even a majority of Catholics in Northern Ireland that would vote to end it,” he added.

“Most Catholics in Northern Ireland are basing their choice, not on a strong British national identity, but upon a rational assessment of their social and economic welfare.”

The First Minister said while he admired the success of the Scottish National Party he did not believe their level of support “will translate into support for an independent Scotland anymore than support for an Irish nationalist or republican party automatically means support for a united Ireland”.

Mr Robinson said he had “no appetite” for significant additional powers being devolved to the Northern Assembly other than lowering corporation tax.

‘Divisive’ EU question: Hayes warns of UK poll

A referendum in the UK in the coming years on its membership of the European Union would be “very divisive”, Minister of State Brian Hayes has said.

Speaking to the British Irish Association in Oxford, Mr Hayes said a referendum on the issue – which is now being demanded by many Conservative MPs – could throw up very different results in each part of the UK.

“Even if a majority within the UK decided to leave, would a majority in Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland vote to leave?” Mr Hayes told the association, which is celebrating its 40th anniversary.

He added: "In coming years, we face more Europe, not less; more integration, not less." MARK HENNESSY