MIDDLE EAST: Syria's leader may have to sacrifice top officials in the Rafik Hariri murder inquiry, writes Michael Jansen
Syrian officials recognise that Damascus has no option but to comply with the terms of the UN Security Council resolution adopted on Monday. Deputy premier Abdullah Dardari declared yesterday that Syria could prove its innocence and escape the threat of sanctions if the truth is exposed about the assassination of former Lebanese premier Rafik Hariri last February. A close ally of President Bashar Assad, Dr Dardari indicated that Syria would co-operate fully with the UN investigation team headed by German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis.
It is set to deliver its final report to the Security Council on December 15th.
On the one hand, Syria is required to conduct its own investigation into the murder of Mr Hariri. On Saturday, Damascus set up a commission to carry out this task in conjunction with the ongoing investigation of the UN team.
On the other hand, Syria will have to permit Mr Mehlis to interview senior members of the regime and the ruling family anywhere he chooses as well as provide access to all relevant documents.
Among those Mr Mehlis seeks to interrogate are the president's brother, Maher, commander of the presidential guard, and brother-in-law Asef Shawkat, head of military intelligence. Both men have already been questioned in the presence of Syrian officials, lawyers and translators. Mr Mehlis wants them on their own, perhaps abroad. Dr Assad has pledged to hand over for trial any official or officer involved.
To stave off Security Council sanctions, Dr Assad may have to sacrifice senior figures accused of plotting to kill Mr Hariri, even his brother and brother-in-law, by handing them over for prosecution to an international tribunal. This could force him to revamp the regime.
Such action would be welcomed in Syria, where there is a feeling that too much power has been concentrated in the hands of junior members of the Assad family since the death of former President Hafez Assad in 2000.
In the absence of key members of the security services, Dr Assad could rein in these agencies. He could also use UN pressure to justify the removal of Baath party stalwarts and the relegation of commercial barons who have been obstructing his political and economic reforms since his failed "Damascus Spring" liberalisation campaign of 2001.
If he were to take such tough action, he would have the backing of domestic opponents and a majority of Syrians who are fed up with the stagnant command economy, corruption and mismanagement.
According to Patrick Seale, an authority on Syria, Dr Assad would also enjoy the support of the largely loyalist military, the ultimate source of power, in any showdown with opponents from his family, the Baath party, armed forces and security agencies.
The Arabs fear that Washington is promoting policies which could destabilise Syria at a time when neighbouring Iraq is sliding into civil war. At present, the US, the prime motivator of council action against Syria, says it seeks a "change in behaviour" in Damascus rather than "regime change". In addition to co-operating with the Mehlis mission, the US wants Syria to block the infiltration of militants into Iraq, cut relations with Iran, and abandon the Lebanese Hizbullah movement and Palestinian factions fighting Israel.
But if Dr Assad fails to meet these demands, unnamed US officials have suggested that the administration would be prepared to work with the Muslim Brotherhood, seen by Washington as a possible successor to the secular Assad regime. However, the army is more likely to seize power than the brotherhood, which was eradicated as a political force in 1982.