GREEN PARTY:For the Greens, the question is how many deputies will survive the backlash, writes PAUL CULLEN, Political Staff
THE ONLY way is down for the Green Party in this election, but the big question is how far the party will fall after 3½ tumultuous years in government.
Many observers are predicting a wipeout for the party’s six TDs, all of whom are standing for re-election. A more likely scenario is that one or possibly two might survive.
The party’s standing in the opinion polls has stayed in the doldrums for most of its time in government, with the last Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll in December putting support at just 2 per cent. Its core vote was just 1 per cent and John Gormley’s satisfaction rating stood at 13 per cent, down 5 per cent on the previous poll in the autumn.
It might not have been to blame for the factors which caused our economic collapse but the party, along with its government partners Fianna Fáil, has felt the full force of public anger for the events of the past two years.
It also alienated a substantial portion of its core support as its impact in government on issues such as Shell’s plans to bring gas ashore in Co Mayo, the US military’s use of Shannon airport and the routing of the M3 motorway near Tara has been limited.
The Greens are generally considered to have made a solid contribution to government, albeit as members of one of the most unpopular administrations in the history of the State. Green minister Eamon Ryan and, to a lesser extent, his colleague Gormley gelled well with Fianna Fáil Ministers and energetically pursued the green agenda within the limits of their respective portfolios. Greens in other countries have sometimes been accused of flakiness, but this accusation could not be thrown at the Irish Green Party, aside perhaps from some of the more extraordinary performances of its backbench TD, Paul Gogarty.
The party claims it has helped create 20,000 “green” jobs by introducing home insulation schemes and increasing the amount of energy produced from renewable sources. It protected the education budget against cuts for as long as possible and saw through important planning legislation. The party also championed civil partnerships. The Greens also introduced the cycle to work scheme, ensured that bikes can go on trains and Dart services and pushed through legislation to ban stag hunting.
In the 2007 election, the party upped its vote to 4.7 per cent but failed to gain any seats overall. Of its six TDs, Ryan in Dublin South and Mary White in Carlow-Kilkenny are reckoned to have the best chance of survival. Trevor Sargent may also be in with a shout of being returned in Dublin North, but Gormley in Dublin South East, Ciarán Cuffe in Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown and Gogarty in Dublin Mid West are long shots.
There is no reason to believe the Green Party will be extinguished permanently. The German Greens, once written off, are enjoying huge popularity.
In Ireland, the party lost its first Dáil seat, that of Roger Garland in Dublin South, after three years in 1992, but bounced back within five years.
HOW THEY FARED IN 2007
VOTE PERCENTAGE:4.7%
SEATS:6