Today sees the opening of chapter two in the bitter credibility and power struggle between Sir Ronnie Flanagan and the Police Ombudsman, Mrs Nuala O'Loan, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
The Chief Constable, Sir Ronnie Flanagan, is planning a three-pronged attack in an attempt to "thoroughly rebut" the report by the Police Ombudsman, Mrs Nuala O'Loan, alleging that the RUC, under his leadership, bungled the Omagh bombing investigation, according to well-placed sources.
The head of the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI), the sources said, believes that his report will repudiate much of Mrs O'Loan's fierce criticisms of the police handling of the Omagh investigation, and that while it will admit to some deficiencies, it will try to explain how and why they occurred.
Sir Ronnie Flanagan in his report is expected to attempt to:
Rebut suggestions in Mrs O'Loan's report that a warning on August 4th, 1998, of an "unspecified" planned terrorist attack on Omagh on August 15th, 1998 (the day of the bombing), was mishandled by the RUC.
Discredit an informant code-named Kevin Fulton who on August 12th, three days before the "Real IRA" bombing, told his police handlers that a terrorist attack appeared imminent at an unspecified location in Northern Ireland.
Admit to some deficiencies in the post-bombing investigation but "contextualise" these flaws in an attempt to partly justify how the RUC, and the Special Branch in particular, dealt with the investigation.
Sir Ronnie is also expected to claim that Mrs O'Loan, by publishing her report before he had formally responded to her criticisms, was denying him and other senior officers "natural justice". He may also leave open the possibility of his taking legal action against the Ombudsman.
The Northern Secretary, Dr John Reid, the 19-member Policing Board and the Police Ombudsman are today due to receive Sir Ronnie's response. It will not be officially released until the Omagh families are briefed on its contents by Sir Ronnie in Omagh on Thursday.
Well-placed sources said that since Mrs O'Loan published her report on December 12th, Sir Ronnie has lived with, reflected and brooded upon her findings "morning, noon and night".
They said he was deeply wounded by her conclusion that his judgment and leadership over the investigation were "seriously flawed" and that as a result the chances of finding the "Real IRA" team responsible for killing 29 people, including a woman pregnant with twins, were "seriously reduced".
The Ombudsman's report was scathing about his leadership. After the introductory preliminaries, the first sentence of the first paragraph states bluntly: "This is about a failure of leadership", a theme that is evident throughout its 12 pages.
"Mrs O'Loan had her day. Thursday will be Ronnie's day," said one source. "His report is a clinical, professional document which he believes thoroughly rebuts the Police Ombudsman's claims."
After Mrs O'Loan's report was published, Sir Ronnie assembled a team of 12 police officers which since then, and through most of the Christmas and New Year holiday period, has been working to produce a report that would largely absolve Sir Ronnie and other senior officers and the police in general of Mrs O'Loan's devastating criticisms.
"This has exercised his time and attention, there is no question about that," said one source. Other sources said that Sir Ronnie, in the twilight of his RUC/PSNI career, was determined to retire from the force some time this year with his honour and leadership intact.
Some commentators believe Sir Ronnie could have a degree of success in undermining the value of the August 4th tip-off to the RUC, which spoke of a possible gun and rocket attack on police in Omagh by the Continuity IRA rather than a bomb attack by the "Real IRA".
Equally, he may be able to undermine the authority of Kevin Fulton's August 12th, 1998, information about an attack at an unspecified location in Northern Ireland, although Fulton has indicated he would challenge any attempt to damage his credibility.
However, it is in justifying or explaining how the police investigated the bombing that Sir Ronnie would appear to face most difficulty. This is primarily because an internal RUC review of the handling of the investigation, which Mrs O'Loan cited in her report, pointed up several deficiencies in the investigation.
The internal review by Chief Supt Brian McVicar referred to several flaws such as: no full-time senior or deputy senior investigating officer in charge of the case; a failure to link Omagh to other dissident bombings such as at Banbridge, Lisburn, Moira and Newry; the virtual halving of the investigation team two months after the bombing, and a continued reduction thereafter; the very poor relations between the RUC investigation team and their Garda equivalent; the re-creation of inquiry documents that may have been destroyed; and other criticisms of the management of the inquiry.
Chief Supt McVicar on the basis of his review made 274 recommendations, 134 of which, according to Mrs O'Loan's report, related to "evidential opportunities". Furthermore, the Ombudsman identified 360 intelligence documents in Special Branch of relevance to the Omagh inquiry, 78 per cent of which were not passed on to the investigating team.
It would appear unlikely that Sir Ronnie would dismiss Chief Supt McVicar's review but here, sources said, he would try to place these defects "in their proper context" to justify how they might have arisen or to contend that they had no substantial bearing on the conduct of the overall investigation.
This is going to be a fraught period for Sir Ronnie and Mrs O'Loan and also for the fledgling PSNI and Police Ombudsman's office. There is no doubt this is a bitter power and credibility struggle between two resolute personalities. Both they and their offices may emerge wounded from the process.