Signs are good with words like 'deliverance'

It was a helter-skelter, potentially momentous day at St Andrews yesterday.

It was a helter-skelter, potentially momentous day at St Andrews yesterday.

When it all concluded, Rev Ian Paisley said there has got to be "deliverance" by republicans, particularly on policing. It was an apt choice of word, with a biblical ring to it, because what seems to have been achieved over the three days of talks was political deliverance.

The prospects of a deal seemed bleak yesterday morning. As usual the gloom was wrapped around the issues of policing for Sinn Féin and power-sharing for the DUP.

Both sides had been playing hardball.

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The DUP was demanding that a year or more must elapse after Sinn Féin had endorsed the PSNI before Ian Paisley would enter into a Northern Executive with Martin McGuinness. Sinn Féin said full-blown devolution must be up and running before it would even call an ardfheis on policing. Progress was impossible from such polarised positions. Even the omens were bad yesterday: it was Friday the 13th.

At a morning briefing Tony Blair's official spokesman was telling us: "It is tough but we are still in business."

As soon as the words "still in business" were out of his mouth, a cock crowed. We discovered later that it was a journalist's mobile phone ring-tone but it also seemed biblically apt.

And then six hours later the DUP leader was talking about "deliverance". He also said he was a leader who stuck to his pledges. If everyone follows the plan of events - particularly Sinn Féin - then implicit in this comment was that the deal would be concluded.

We must not run ahead of ourselves here because, as in any sequenced deal, it could all unravel in the critical weeks and months ahead to March when it is hoped that Ian Paisley will be in his First Minister's office and Martin McGuinness will be in his Deputy First Minister office on opposite sides of Parliament Buildings, Stormont.

What is planned and scheduled here will be very difficult for many of the DUP grassroots. If at local party meetings and over the airwaves the party's baseline supporters express shock and revulsion at the notion of entering into government with, as they would have it, "Sinn Féin/IRA", then Dr Paisley could get nervous.

Yet Dr Paisley, with his own form of political and religious infallibility, is probably strong enough to convince supporters to endorse the choreographed plan. And that is how he seemed minded yesterday.

There was one positive omen that must not be discounted: yesterday was his and his wife Eileen's golden wedding anniversary. At the press conference he spoke of looking forward to spending it with his wife, his children and his grandchildren. He could envisage a better time for all the children of the North.

Shortly beforehand, at a round-table talks session, the Irish side made a nice gesture of presenting Dr Paisley and Baroness Paisley with a bowl carved from a 250-year-old walnut tree from the site of the Battle of the Boyne, which had collapsed in a storm.

"I hope that in 50 years' time we will be able to look back on this as a great anniversary," he said to applause.

Such symbolism and comments do not necessarily make a deal, and there is always that Paisley unpredictable factor, but the language was good and, as he said, he keeps his pledges.

So, yesterday Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and prime minister Tony Blair were able to unveil the "St Andrews agreement" that explicitly and (implicitly in terms of policing) addresses the vexed matters of power-sharing and policing. Dr Paisley seems to be up for the former and it is now for Mr Adams to deliver the latter.

In terms of the sequence, the plan is that next week the Assembly Programme for Government Committee will agree priority issues for the proposed Northern Executive.

By November 11th the parties will say whether they accept or reject the agreement. If they do, over November 20th and 21st Westminster legislation will be enacted to give effect to the agreement. On the deadline for a deal, November 24th, Ian Paisley and Martin McGuinness will be symbolically deemed First Minister and Deputy First Minister, although they will not have any powers.

In January there will be another International Monitoring Commission report. At an unspecified date in March a referendum, but perhaps more likely an Assembly election, will be held to provide electoral endorsement of the deal. On March 14th party leaders will nominate their ministers to the Executive. On March 26th devolution will be fully restored.

The missing item in the agreement paper is policing. However, talks sources insist Sinn Féin has agreed to call an ardfheis to endorse the PSNI, most likely after November 24th, but before the end of this year. The ardchomhairle would take place soon, said Mr Adams.

This, as mentioned here before, is a contingency deal: if one element of the sequencing fails, the whole agreement fails.

That could happen. But it has to be said all the indications last night were positive. Dr Paisley seemed willing and prepared to utter the "Yes" word as long as Mr Adams delivers his side of the deal.