AMERICAN REACTION:Many believe the White House has been sitting on the fence, writes LARA MARLOWEin Washington
THOUGH THE Obama administration’s stance on the Egyptian crisis has evolved over the past week, analysts here say the US is merely reacting to – not shaping – events in the most populous Arab country.
When the protests started a week ago, secretary of state Hillary Clinton said President Hosni Mubarak's regime was "stable" and "responding to the legitimate needs and interests of the Egyptian people". As the protests grew, the US called for "engagement" between Mubarak and the opposition, a proposal the Washington Postdismissed as "unrealistic" and "far-fetched".
On January 28th, Clinton and the president, Barack Obama, warned Mubarak against using violence on his own people. Over the weekend, the White House and Clinton called for an “orderly transition”, and the administration has since demanded “free and fair elections”.
But despite a report in the Los Angeles Timesthat the administration is "preparing for a post-Mubarak era", the rhetorical escalation stopped with the call for elections, due in any case next September. No US officials have publicly called for Mubarak's ouster. The strongest demand – so far unheeded – from figures outside the administration, including Senator John McCain, is that Mubarak promise not to stand for re-election.
“The US is a spectator. There is little it can do at this point to change the course of events,” said Marina Ottaway, director of the Middle East programme at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The US is sitting on the fence. Diplomats may understand the nuances in language, but I’m sure the crowds in Tahrir Square don’t.”
Khairi Abaza, a senior fellow at the Foundation for the Defence of Democracies, says popular feeling in Cairo hardened on the night of January 28th, when Mubarak took uniformed police off the streets and armed men, believed to be plainclothes police, shot at demonstrators and engaged in looting. “There’s a perception that Mubarak is a puppet of the Americans, that he does what the Americans tell him,” Abaza said. “Calling for the regime to restore Twitter and the internet isn’t going to cut it. The longer Mubarak stays in office, the more the street will believe it’s because he’s supported by Washington. Anger will be directed against the US if they don’t take a stronger stand.”
Washington gives $1.5 billion in aid to Egypt annually, as a reward for its 1979 peace treaty with Israel. On January 28th, Mr Obama’s spokesman hinted the administration might review that aid – most of which is weapons and training for the Egyptian army – presumably as a means of pressure against Mubarak.
Clinton subsequently backtracked, saying US aid to Egypt was not in question.
The Suez Canal earns Egypt $6 billion annually, and the country is the world’s sixth exporter of liquified natural gas, Abaza said. “US aid could be replaced by the Chinese or Russians. What matters most to the regime are spare parts for its US-made weapons.” Protesters report finding “Made in USA” inscribed on tear gas canisters on the streets of Egyptian cities.
“Mubarak used the police as a buffer between the army and the population,” says Abaza. “The dirty work was done by the police, so the population like the army.”
Most Egyptian men are required to serve up to three years in the military, and the army has so far fraternised with protesters.
But the army may have to decide soon between the population and Mubarak. US officers – more than the White House – may exert decisive influence, after three decades of close military ties. The chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, spoke to Lieut Gen Sami Hafez Enan, the chief of staff of the Egyptian army, on January 30th. Admiral Mullen thanked the army for not firing on protesters by praising the “continued professionalism of the Egyptian military”.
Marwan Muasher, a former Jordanian foreign minister and now a senior fellow at Yale and vice-president of the Carnegie Endowment, sees Washington as a bystander in the Egyptian crisis.
“The Mubarak regime is finished, whether Mubarak leaves tomorrow or in six months,” he said. “What can the US do? Very little. You don’t build credibility in a day, and Washington has no history of imposing human rights and reform. With Egypt, the US has missed the boat.”
