Could Bertie Ahern be afraid to offend media mogul Rupert Murdoch, who has a track record of making and breaking politicians through his many media outlets? asks Paul Cullen
Now that Brussels has scotched the Government's claim that it couldn't intervene to keep Ireland's soccer matches on free-to-air television, the question arises: why did it make such a claim in the first place?
Both the Taoiseach and the Minister for Communications, Mr Dermot Ahern, agreed they had the power to draw up a list of major sporting events to be preserved for live free television, but claimed they couldn't include "whole tournaments", i.e. Ireland's qualifying matches for the European championships.
It was also claimed that the soccer internationals which are the subject of the controversial FAI-Sky deal could not be placed on the list retrospectively.
Now we learn from the European Commission that neither assertion holds water. So what explanation can be found for the feeble and misguided stance of both Aherns, which comes after three years of Government inaction since the relevant legislation was passed?
It is hard to see Bertie Ahern quailing before the FAI, even if he did show himself reluctant to get involved in the Roy Keane controversy during the World Cup.
But what about the other half of the equation, Sky, and its all-powerful owner, Rupert Murdoch? Is it possible that the Taoiseach is anxious not to offend Murdoch, who has a track record of making and breaking politicians through his many media outlets?
Only five weeks ago Bertie marked his first day back in power by opening a new printing plant for Murdoch's News International media company in Co Meath. Gushingly, he described the magnate as "one of the world's foremost leaders in media who has been hailed as one of the most outstanding Australian figures of modern times".
The Taoiseach's spokesman says he was unaware then that Sky was bidding for the right to televise Ireland's soccer matches, so the subject couldn't have come up for conversation between the two.
But Bertie must surely have felt gratitude for the support given to Fianna Fáil by Murdoch's two main Irish papers, the Sunday Times and the News of the World, in the past two elections.
Yet he may also have felt some nervousness at the fate suffered by other politicians who enjoyed the support of Murdoch and then fell foul of the multimillionaire.
In the 1970s, for example, the Murdoch-owned press played a supporting role in the Labour Party's success in ending 23 years of Conservative rule in Australia.
But Murdoch quickly tired of the Labour administration and did a 180-degree turn to support the Liberal Party. A vicious media campaign against the Labour leader ensued, and journalists employed by Murdoch went on strike in protest at the bias of their own newspapers.
By the 1980s in Britain, Murdoch was famously throwing his media muscle behind Margaret Thatcher. Her Conservative government introduced a raft of labour reforms much to the benefit of Murdoch and other big employers. When he bought the Times and the Sunday Times in 1981, the deal was not referred to the monopolies commission, as many expected.
Murdoch's continuing support for the Conservatives was crucial to John Major's success in the 1992 election. "It was the Sun wot won it," the newspaper trumpeted characteristically after the poll.
Within years he was changing sides again. When still in opposition, Tony Blair flew halfway round the world to meet Murdoch and addressed a News Corporation conference in Australia. The British Sun's support for Mr Blair played a major role in Labour's landslide victory in 1997. Within months Mr Blair was making phone-calls to the Italian Prime Minister, Romano Prodi, on the newspaper-owner's behalf.
Murdoch's love affair with New Labour continued through last year's election, when the Sun declared in advance that the race for Prime Minister was "in the bag". Now relations are cooling, and the Sun has run headlines about Mr Blair like "Is this the most dangerous man in Britain?" because of his support for the euro.
Nothing is allowed to get in the way of Murdoch's business objectives. He dropped the BBC from his Star satellite chain in Asia in order to ingratiate himself with the regime in China, one of the region's biggest markets. For the same reason, he ordered publishers Harper Collins to drop the memoirs of Chris Patten, former governor of Hong Kong.
Murdoch's Irish titles have responded more favourably to the FAI-Sky deal than other media here. The Irish edition of the Sunday Times said: "The FAI deserves credit for another respectable leap towards financial viability." The Taoiseach, whose media management techniques owe so much to those practised by the British Labour Party, is well aware of the power that Murdoch wields through his Irish outlets, and of his wrath when scorned.
As Murdoch's biographer puts it: "You can't be an outsider and be successful over 30 years without leaving a certain amount of scar tissue." Rival media magnate Leo Kirch puts it more bluntly: "Murdoch is a shark. Sharks have long teeth. Somebody who doesn't want to swim with sharks shouldn't be in the water."
What bets, then, that Bertie Ahern won't place a toe in these choppy waters?