Sacking of Primakov is likely to cause huge crisis

The dismissal of the Russian prime minister, Mr Yevgeny Primakov, is likely to cause the biggest constitutional crisis in Russia…

The dismissal of the Russian prime minister, Mr Yevgeny Primakov, is likely to cause the biggest constitutional crisis in Russia since the shelling of parliament in 1993. It threatens to wreck Russia's credibility on Kosovo and may have galvanised Duma deputies in their attempt to impeach President Yeltsin.

Russia's stability at a time of economic crisis has also been severely damaged.

The move, though widely expected, appears to have been one of Mr Yeltsin's biggest mistakes of a long and extremely erratic political career. Even Mr Vladimir Ryzhkov, leader of the pro-Yeltsin "Our Home is Russia" faction in the State Duma, said the first stage of the impeachment process, on a knife-edge up to yesterday, may now get the 300 votes it needs.

The Russian constitution was written at Mr Yeltsin's behest, making his removal from office on impeachment procedures virtually impossible. More importantly, however, putting the impeachment procedure before the lower house would reduce the President's powers.

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The Duma's 243 to 20-vote call for Mr Yeltsin's resignation yesterday merely indicates the opposition to the President within parliament. More significantly, the adoption of one of the five articles of impeachment against Mr Yeltsin would, according to the constitution, relieve the President of his powers to dissolve parliament.

The appointment of Mr Sergei Stepashin (46), Mr Yeltsin's latest nominee as Prime Minister, must be approved by the Duma. Should the House refuse the nomination three times, Mr Yeltsin would be constitutionally obliged to dissolve parliament. But should impeachment be on the agenda, such a dissolution would appear to be illegal.

The timing of the Duma's vote on impeachment is crucial, therefore. Should it be taken and passed before the vote on Mr Stepashin's nomination, then a constitutional crisis would appear inevitable. Russia would face a crisis similar to that which led to the shelling of the parliament and the killing of protesters and journalists by pro-Yeltsin forces at the Ostankino TV station in October 1993.

Mr Stepashin, who relentlessly pursued the murderous war in Chechnya - in which up to 30,000 innocent civilians are believed to have died - is one of the few politicians who could pursue another military move against the parliament. His career in the interior ministry has earned him the loyalty of up to a million police and hundreds of thousands of well-trained and equipped troops.

His predecessor, Mr Primakov, appears to have been removed from office for three reasons. Firstly, he became more popular with the public than Mr Yeltsin, something Russia's President does not tolerate. Secondly, he pursued allegations of widespread corruption in Mr Yeltsin's entourage. Thirdly, his sacking was intended to frighten the Duma.

Yesterday the former privatisation minister, Mr Anatoly Chubais, who is probably Russia's least popular politician, began to claim credit for the moves. Mr Chubais, who, along with the former prime minister and Kosovo envoy, Mr Viktor Chernomyrdin, has been accused by US intelligence sources of significant personal corruption, claimed that he has once more begun to advise Mr Yeltsin, whom he described as being "in very good form."

The reliable Moscow newspaper Izvestia reported that before Mr Primakov was sacked, the Duma was just three votes short of passing one of the five impeachment articles: that accusing Mr Yeltsin of starting the Chechen war. On this article the communists and nationalists have been joined by the democratic, pro-western Yabloko grouping led by Mr Grigory Yavlinsky. It appears that should a roll-call vote, rather than a secret ballot, be taken on that particular article, impeachment could officially be put before the House.

Seamus Martin

Seamus Martin

Seamus Martin is a former international editor and Moscow correspondent for The Irish Times