ANALYSIS: The DUP leader is attempting to tap into a change of thinking within unionism generally and also within wider society in the North
FIRST MINISTER Peter Robinson is delivering his keynote leader’s address at the DUP annual conference in the La Mon Hotel on the outskirts of east Belfast today. He is conscious he must try to steer a political course between broadening the appeal of the DUP while holding on to the evangelical foundations that were the basis of the party.
Part of that approach is to seek support from Catholic voters who, perhaps, satisfied with the current constitutional arrangement and fearful of the economic consequences of being linked to the South, might be persuaded to vote DUP.
The last census of 2001 showed the Protestant population was at 53.1 per cent, while the Catholic population was 43.8 per cent. The next census figures based on the increasing number of Catholics – vis-a-vis the number of Protestants – in primary, secondary and third-level education suggests there will be a further narrowing of the gap.
In an interview with the London Times last Saturday, the First Minister was asked about the demographics. “The assumption behind your question is that the Catholic population will not vote for unionist parties,” he told his interviewer.
He, on the contrary, believed a significant number of nationalists wanted to maintain links with London because of how the recession is hitting the South. He said: “What is happening in the Irish Republic is not appetising [for nationalists]. I think the more stable our structure, the more peaceful Northern Ireland is, the more it works as part of the UK, then the more people will think, ‘Why on earth would we change?’”
It prompted an acerbic editorial response from Monday’s nationalist Irish News, which viewed the Times interview as an effective appeal to Catholics to support the DUP. If that was the case, the writer wondered, why had Robinson declined all requests for an interview from the newspaper, whose audience is mainly Catholic and nationalist?
Robinson has survived the boiling cauldron that was Irisgate, and is perhaps still nursing some media grudges. It isn’t, by any stretch, what could be classified as a significant political issue – just a little odd that he rejects this obvious platform on which to make his case to a different constituency.
Robinson also caused some puzzlement when last week he threatened to resign as First Minister and trigger Assembly elections if Minister for Justice David Ford were to remove the British emblems of the Northern Ireland Prison Service. His furious response was redolent of the explosive, unpredictable Robinson of the past, but that row too appears to have passed.
Robinson and his Ministers attended the North-South Ministerial Council meeting with the Taoiseach and his Ministers yesterday week in Armagh, and by all accounts was good humoured and witty. There was a bit of a kerfuffle over Enda Kenny’s calls for an inquiry into the murder of Pat Finucane, with reciprocal unionist complaints about how in the 1970s Dublin governments allegedly allowed the IRA free passage across the Border to carry out murder and mayhem. But, again, the word from Dublin is that the relationship is good.
So, as Robinson prepares to deliver his leader’s speech today, the DUP’s position as the dominant unionist party seems absolutely assured. The Ulster Unionist Party isn’t competing in any meaningful manner.
The diverse and up-and-coming DUP people profiled here exemplify how Robinson is seeking to make his party a broader church. People such as future minister for finance and possible future leader Simon Hamilton, Brenda Hale – whose British army husband Mark was killed in Afghanistan two years ago – and Peter Robinson’s special adviser Gavin Robinson (no relation), all come across as relatively moderate in disposition and viewpoint – not the sort who would frighten any Catholics thinking of casting a preference for the DUP.
As a Pole, Daniel Konieczny is not burdened with Irish nationalist baggage, so that won’t offend his new-found friends in the DUP. And while Paul Givan is proud of his Free Presbyterianism, neither is he the firebrand type that would repel any other Catholics out there who, as Peter Robinson says, might be disposed to vote DUP.
These shifts appear to reflect the quiet moves within unionism generally and also within society in the North, and Robinson is tapping into it. It is too early to say whether this will lead to some or more Catholics opting for the First Minister’s party, but equally there is no doubt that in the DUP there is evolution, if not revolution, in the air.