Both sides of the abortion referendum debate are failing to win over voters an Irish Times/MRBIpoll shows, with the yes vote polling four per cent less and the No vote polling three per cent less than they did five weeks ago.
The results of an opinion poll to be published in tomorrow's Irish Timesshows 35 per cent of respondents intend to vote yes while 31 per cent will vote no.
While the results show the Government’s proposals will be carried by a narrow margin; the vast number of those who did not give a definite answer, 34 per cent, coupled with the margin for error in such polls, shows the outcome is too close to call.
The number of ‘no opinion’ respondents increased by 2 points to 23 per cent while those who do not intend to vote went up five to 11 per cent.
Advocates on both sides of the debate will be working hard to win over the large number of undecided voters before next Wednesday's vote but will surely be disappointed by the high level of public indecision.
The last Irish Times/MRBIopinion poll conducted five weeks ago showed a significant number of voters were undecided, yet after nearly three weeks of intensive campaigning, the number of undecided voters and those who will not vote has increased by an aggregate 7 per cent, reflecting voter confusion.
Although the poll appears to be good news for yes advocates, the findings may cause them greater concern than no advocates.
The Nice Treaty referendum last year was narrowly rejected despite polls consistently showing it would be endorsed by a narrow margin. Voter confusion was blamed for the low turn-out and the public’s rejection of the stance of State’s biggest political parties. The poll indicates a similar outcome is possible.
The poll was conducted in 100 sample centres throughout every constituency in the State on Monday 25th and Tuesday 26th of this week among a national quota sample of 1,000 people.
The question asked was:
The Government is holding a referendum on abortion on March 6th. Its main aim is to change the decision reached in the X-case by removing the threat of suicide as a grounds for abortion. It will also protect the unborn from the time of implantation rather than conception. If the referendum was held in the morning, would you vote yes, in favour of the changes proposed by the Government, or would you vote no against the changes proposed by the Government?