Poll gives second Lisbon referendum chance of passing


A second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty has a chance of being carried, according to a new Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll which shows a swing to the Yes side since the referendum defeat last June.

The poll shows a change in public attitudes since June with 43 per cent now saying they would vote yes, 39 per cent no and 18 per cent having no opinion.

In the poll, people were asked how they would vote if the Treaty was modified to allow Ireland to retain an EU Commissioner and other Irish concerns on neutrality, abortion and taxation were clarified in special declarations.

When those expressing no opinion are excluded, those in favour make up 52.5 per cent, with opponents on 47.5 per cent. It compares to the referendum result in June of 53.4 per cent against and 46.6 per cent in favour of the treaty.

With 18 per cent of voters undecided, the poll indicates that the outcome of another referendum is in the balance and everything will depend on the quality of the campaigns waged by the Yes and No sides.

The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus three per cent.