FINE GAEL is on course to lead the next government, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll, which also shows Fianna Fáil has dropped to another record low.
Fine Gael has increased its lead over all the other parties since the last Irish Times poll in December and leader Enda Kenny has seen a significant rise in his satisfaction rating.
The election of new Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin last week has not turned the party’s fortunes around. Instead it slumped to its lowest polling figure yet.
When asked if the election of Mr Martin would make them more or less inclined to vote for Fianna Fáil, 24 per cent said they would be more inclined, 63 per cent said it would make no difference while 9 per cent said they would be less inclined.
The Labour Party, Sinn Féin and the Greens have all lost support since the last poll but there has been a significant increase in those saying they will vote for Independents/Others.
When people were asked who they would vote for if there were a general election tomorrow, the figures for party support (when undecided voters are excluded) compared with the last Irish Times poll on December 15th were: Fianna Fáil, 15 per cent (down two points); Fine Gael, 33 per cent (up three points); Labour, 24 per cent (down one point); Sinn Féin, 12 per cent (down three points); Green Party, 1 per cent (down one point); and Independents/Others, 15 per cent (up four points).
The changes in support are even more pronounced when compared to the Irish Times poll of September last with Fine Gael gaining nine points since then and Fianna Fáil and Labour each dropping nine points.
The poll was taken on Monday and Tuesday of this week among a representative sample of 1,000 voters aged 18 and over, in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 per cent.
The core vote for the parties (before undecided voters are excluded) compared with the last poll was: Fianna Fáil, 12 per cent (down one point); Fine Gael, 26 per cent (up three points); Labour, 19 per cent (up one point); Sinn Féin, 11 per cent (down two points); Green Party, 1 per cent (no change); Independents/Others, 11 per cent (up two points); and undecided voters, 22 per cent (down three points).
Satisfaction with the way the Government is doing its job has dropped to a remarkably low 4 per cent (down one point) while the number expressing dissatisfaction is running at 95 per cent (up seven points).
Satisfaction with outgoing taoiseach Brian Cowen is just 8 per cent (down six points). These are the lowest ratings achieved by a government or taoiseach since MRBI began polling for The Irish Times in the autumn of 1982 and the same is true of support for Fianna Fáil.
By contrast, Fine Gael has risen to a level of support last achieved in the autumn of 2009 after its successful local and European election campaign.
There is also good news for Enda Kenny, whose satisfaction rating has increased significantly. Mr Kenny is on 30 per cent (up seven points); Mr Martin is on 25 per cent; Eamon Gilmore is on 44 per cent (no change); John Gormley, 15 per cent (up two points); and Gerry Adams, 27 per cent (down one).
The poll shows 61 per cent of people have definitely made up their minds how they will vote but 38 per cent may still change their minds.
Among voters who have definitely made up their minds Fine Gael is on 35 per cent, Fianna Fáil is on 16 per cent, Labour on 21 per cent, Sinn Féin on 14 per cent and Independents and Others 13 per cent.
Labour will take comfort from the fact that Mr Gilmore remains the most popular party leader but his prospects of becoming taoiseach have become slimmer.
Fine Gael has seen a big surge in support among better-off AB voters and it has increased its support base in Dublin where Labour remains strongest. Support for Fianna Fáil remains strongest among over-65s.
Sinn Féin has dropped three points since the last poll and the party’s support is strongest in Connacht Ulster and Munster.
The Green Party is down to 1 per cent and is in a battle to survive as a Dáil party. Independents and Others have risen to 15 per cent and are likely to be strongly represented in the next Dáil.
FIANNA FÁIL
15–2
LABOUR
24–1
FINE GAEL
33+3