Still time to pull back from brink following McGuinness resignation

Did the nuclear button have to be pressed by Sinn Féin?

Yes, according to Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness.

No, said Arlene Foster.

It was the calamitous "cash-for-ash" renewable heat incentive (RHI) scheme that has precipitated this political upheaval but now it's a bigger matter – it's about the future of the powersharing institutions established by the 1998 Belfast Agreement.

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Foster said McGuinness’s “actions have meant that, at precisely the time we need our government to be active, we will have no government and no way to resolve the RHI problems”.

However, it was clear from Sinn Féin that it is working to a much bigger agenda. That was characterised by McGuinness saying that “Sinn Féin will not tolerate the arrogance of Arlene Foster and the DUP”.

The battle lines are being drawn, and the North looks set for a very nasty election, after which it may prove difficult to recover what was achieved in 1998.

The politicians still have until Monday to lessen some of the fallout, but the mood and the language on Monday night pointed to the inevitability of the collapse of Stormont, and Assembly elections in late winter or early spring.

McGuinness certainly caused a political shock when he announced shortly before 3pm on Monday that he was resigning, but there was equal and perhaps even greater shock that his health has so obviously failed so dramatically.

His frailty and the weakness of his voice emphasised that his physical condition seems to have significantly deteriorated.

Warm personality

There will be different views, but most people will wish him well. Whatever about his IRA past, McGuinness’s warm personality has helped him make many friends, including from the enemy camp, so to speak.

Notwithstanding that there is sympathy for the now former Deputy First Minister McGuinness, the fact remains that the precipitate action by him and Adams has ratcheted up the level of political crisis in Northern Ireland.

Not only is the North facing into Assembly elections but there are serious questions over what sort of future there is for the Northern Executive and Assembly.

Of course, there is a minor possibility that if Foster did stand aside before Monday, perhaps the situation could be saved and elections avoided. Sinn Féin has been demanding she do so, pending the outcome of an investigation into the botched “cash-for-ash” scheme.

But the line from the DUP is that Foster will not step down at the diktat of Sinn Féin. If she and her party hold to that position, then elections seem inevitable.

But, as is often the case in Northern Ireland, the question is: elections to what?

The state-funded RHI was supposed to offer a proportion of the cost thousands of businesses had to pay to run eco-friendly boilers, but the subsidy tariffs were set too high and, without a cap, it ended up paying out significantly more than the price of fuel. It has meant that over the coming 20 years the scheme could result in an overspend of up to £490 million (€563m), to be borne by the Northern taxpayer.

Cost controls

The scheme was implemented by the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Investment when Foster was its minister. The major spike in people joining the scheme happened when

Jonathan Bell

succeeded her, but Foster is accused of failing to have the foresight to impose cost controls on the scheme, as happened in Britain.

There was a lot of spinning in the great hall of Parliament Buildings in Stormont on Monday, and the strong line from Sinn Féin people was that this controversy had moved way beyond the “cash-for-ash” controversy.

Sinn Féin sources said it was now time to put manners on the DUP. They claim that in the past year Foster has been “rubbing our noses in it” on issues such as the Irish language, how to deal with the past and the rejection of a Troubles interpretative centre at the old Maze prison site amongst many other issues.

Sinn Féin’s mood was not alleviated by the DUP Communities Minister Paul Givan’s decision just before Christmas to remove a £50,000 Irish language Liofa bursaries grant. The timing of the announcement convinced many in Sinn Féin that the DUP was rather sticking the boot in. It seemed petty and unwise.

Arrogant

Sinn Féin possibly feels that if there is any time to weaken both Foster and the DUP then this is it. The policy is to depict her as arrogant and spiteful, and unwilling to engage in an equal powersharing government. Sinn Féin will have the added advantage of being able to refer throughout the election campaign to the RHI scandal.

The DUP’s response will probably be to play hardball and use the Orange versus Green card: that is if unionists don’t vote DUP then it could result in Sinn Féin ending up as the largest party and in line for the post of First Minister. That has worked in the past and could work again.

One senior Sinn Féin source said the party could live without Stormont, that whatever happens this latest controversy will serve the party’s longer-term all-Ireland ambitions.

With such positions it seems certain this will be a polarising and on some fronts a sectarian election.

Even after the people have voted, there is a real threat to the powersharing institutions. There is no guarantee that a new Northern Executive and Assembly can be restored. After the election we could be in for weeks or months of negotiations on the issues raised by Sinn Féin. There is still a week to pull back from the brink but right now that seems unlikely.