THE desire by the Northern Ireland electorate for the two governments to play a more active role in attempts to find agreement reflects the depth of the divisions within that society and a lack of confidence in the ability of their political leaders to forge a settlement.
Fifty seven per cent of those questioned believed the Irish and British governments should play a more active role at this stage. But, even there, Protestants were deeply suspicious of outside forces and divided almost equally, at 47 to 45 per cent, in favour of intervention. Catholics believed such an initiative was necessary by a margin of 72 to 18 per cent.
When United States involvement in the talks process was at issue, the divisions were even more marked. Some 64 per, cent of Protestants believed US interest in the affair would hinder attempts to secure a settlement, while 75 per cent of Catholics felt that US interest would be beneficial.
Unable to reach agreement among themselves, and reluctant to embrace outside help, the view of the electorate is understandably bleak. Almost two thirds of those questioned believed the talks will fail. That judgment represents one of the few matters on which there is broad cross community agreement.
The findings of the opinion poll will provide little comfort for the Tanaiste, Mr Spring, or for the Northern Ireland Secretary, Sir Patrick Mayhew, as they seek to preserve the governments' three stranded political strategy based on the Framework Document and the Downing Street Declaration.
Speculation about the continued involvement of Senator George Mitchell in the talks process is also likely to intensify because of the gloomy political outlook. For, even if the arms decommissioning problem could be overcome with the help of President Clinton's man on the spot, the yawning gulf that separates the political aspirations of the two communities might defeat him.
The breakdown of the IRA ceasefire, events at Drumcree, a boycott of some Protestant businesses and sectarian intimidation and tensions have all contributed to the present negative climate. But, on the basis of an opinion poll conducted three years ago, just before the Framework Document was published, there has been some political movement.
A hardening of opinion within the Catholic community in favour of a United Ireland, rising from 32 per cent to 39 per cent, is an important change that may be accounted for by the political successes of Sinn Fe in and Drumcree.
But there is an even larger shift in Catholic opinion (17 points) towards a local form of power sharing with North South links and away from a British Irish joint authority model. This movement is reflected to a lesser extent within the Protestant community, where there has been a 9 point rise in support for power sharing arrangements, with or without North South links.
When the first choice of political model was not on offer, Protestant support for a return to the old Stormont almost halved, from 20 to 11 per cent, and Catholic backing for a united Ireland fell from 39 to 11 per cent. Among Protestants, combined first and second choices favoured local power sharing, at 60 per cent, followed by closer integration with the UK at 58 per cent, and local power sharing, with North South links, at 19 per cent.
Some 62 per cent of Catholics favoured power sharing with North South links as their first and second choices; 40 per cent favoured joint British Irish authority and 27 per cent opted for local power sharing.
But while a majority of Catholics were prepared to embrace political compromise in the short term, 48 per cent of them felt the constitutional claim to jurisdiction over Northern Ireland should never be dropped.
Tendrils of hope that slow progress is being made are contained in the findings of this poll, but there is an obvious need for courageous political leadership. At the heart of the difficulties lie blatant sectarianism and suspicion, with both communities likely to lurch towards confrontation rather than compromise.