"EVERYTHING changes here in two minutes", a senior UN source told The Irish Times in New York last week. "Nobody knows what's going to happen. Speculating about an Irish politician becoming the next Secretary General may be entertaining for your readers, but it's about as reliable as predicting, who's going to be the next Pope.
Dr Boutros Boutrous Ghali is not yet ruled out of the reckoning or a further period in office. US politicians have turned him into a hate figure, accusing him of presiding over a UN bureaucracy that refuses to reform. In particular, they remember he was Secretary General when US troops were killed on UN service in Somalia.
The Clinton administration first leaked, then formally announced earlier this year, that it would veto the 73 year old Egyptian's candidacy for a second term, a move supported by the Republican dominated US Congress. President Clinton has therefore ensured that he cannot be accused of supporting a US bogeyman during the presidential election campaign.
But after the campaign things could change. The US has already suggested a one year extension for Dr Boutros Ghali, rather than the usual five year term, but this was rejected by the Egyptians. An informal discussion in Florence in June between EU foreign ministers produced a suggestion of a two or 2 1/2 year extension, a compromise which Dr Boutros Ghali indicated he might accept.
The Americans then acted tough again, saying they had withdrawn their one year offer. But the European suggestion offers a viable compromise, and it cannot be known before the November 5th US election whether that formula can be agreed.
If it is not, the race is wide open. "There is a general feeling now that, the names we are hearing now are just floating on the water, and that the real names won't come to the top until it counts", according to the senior UN source.
"Don't expect the process even to begin until November. And don't expect to be able to predict the winner - nobody is a shoo in at the General Assembly."
The normal procedure is for the UN Security Council to agree a candidate first. This usually involves tough negotiations. Each of the "big five" permanent members (the US, Russia, China, France and Britain) has a veto.
Once they have agreed a candidate, the nane goes to the UN General Assembly for acceptance or rejection. Here the anger among Asian and African states if Dr Boutros Ghali is dumped could result in a series of rejections of developed world candidates, should they be proposed.
Any US sponsored candidate is dead in the present circumstances, according to this source. The Americans haven't paid their dues. They owe the UN £1 billion. They've annoyed Europe, Canada and Latin America over Helms/Burton US legislation, allowing non US firms to be Penalised for trading with Cuba. They leaked their decision to veto Boutros Ghali to the press. They're acting like they can walk over everyone. Everyone else will make them pay if they continue."
The President, Mrs Robinson is the potential Irish candidate most often mentioned, while last week's Sunday Independent suggested that the former Taoiseach, Mr Albert Reynolds, could become a serious contender.
But an Irish candidate will be seen as a European candidate, and the chances of a European candidate getting the post seem remote. In the history of the UN there have already been three European Secretaries General (Trgvye Lie, Dag Hammarskjold and Kurt Waldheim).
Already angry at US snubs and insults to a Third World Secretary General, the Asian and African states have deep objections to thee notion of a fourth white European, getting the job.
There are many names floating, around. The head of the UN High Commission for Refugees, Ms Sadako Ogata of Japan, has managed her agency very successfully in Somalia, Rwanda and Bosnia - indeed the UNHCR's ability to deal with massive refugee crises has saved the reputation of the UN in regions where its ineffective military forces damaged it. Her Japanese nationality could, however, provoke a Chinese veto.
Another Asian name mentioned is that of the Indonesian foreign minister, Mr Ali Alatas.
The head of the Organisation of African States, Mr Salim Salim of Tanzania and Mr Kofi Annan, the Ghanaian undersecretary general for peacekeeping, are mentioned among African candidates. There is even a possible white African contender in Judge Richard Goldstone, an eminent South African now on duty at the International War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague.