Nicky Kelly could take second seat for Labour at FG's expense

CONSTITUENCY NOTEBOOK: Wicklow is a five-seat constituency that has changed substantially since the last general election in 1997.

It has been drawn ever closer to Dublin in that the hundreds of new homes, built between Bray and Arklow, are inhabited, in the main, by people working in or around the capital city.

Although urbanisation continues apace in Wicklow town and Arklow (and there is now even a housing estate in Roundwood), the bulk of the population increase has been at the north end of the county, particularly south of Bray and around Greystones.

The long-established contrasts within the county are therefore all the more today, and at the same time they are wider spread.

Modest-sized farms specialising in sheep are still plentiful between Enniskerry and Roundwood, but such farm families are increasingly finding as neighbours people who are in all other respects urban dwellers.

The same is true of Wicklow town and Arklow: not long ago, both were essentially towns whose existence was closely entwined with their hinterlands. Today, Dublin-bound commuters stream out of both at 6 a.m. and hurtle along the N11 to the city, or link up with the DART at Bray and Greystones.

What all this means for voter interests and intentions is not easy to determine. Transport is certainly an issue. So too is the provision of facilities such as schools, particularly for areas facing rapid population growth. Many people are attracted to the county because of its natural beauty. Will voters pass judgment on Dáil candidates who are also local councillors because of the council's scandalous inaction over illegal dumping?

Of the outgoing TDs, the Independent, Ms Mildred Fox, would seem to have established herself sufficiently to ensure re-election. She stepped into her late father's shoes in a 1995 by-election but held the seat in 1997 with 5,590 first preferences.

Conventional wisdom is that the Fox name and support base among rural voters in the north of the county remain intact. As a result of her disproportionate influence over the outgoing Government, she is also claiming credit for a slew of goodies from a vet office for farmers in east Wicklow to the new secondary school in Kilcoole.

Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Labour are each assured of one seat.

Fianna Fáil has two outgoing TDs - Mr Joe Jacob and Mr Dick Roche. Both polled high first-preference votes last time, each getting over 6,000. Given FF's strong showing in national opinion polls, Mr Roche is likely to be re-elected. But will the same be true for Mr Jacob? Will the voters remember his inept, toe-curling interview with Marian Finucane on Sellafield and those elusive iodine tablets?

Fine Gael's outgoing TD seeking re-election is Mr Billy Timmins, who is based in Baltinglass in the west of the county. His running mate, Mr Ray O'Rourke, a solicitor from Bray, hasn't a hope but perhaps his second preferences can see Mr Timmins safely home.

The really interesting contest involves Labour. Ms Liz McManus from Bray, elected in 1997 on the Democratic Left ticket, is an energetic and impressive TD with ministerial experience. She has an intellect and personal presence that goes down well, and across the social divide, in the heavily built-up areas of Bray and Greystones.

Mr Liam Kavanagh from Wicklow town has hung up his campaign boots and handed over to Mr Joe O'Shaughnessy, current chairman of the council. Last time out, Mr Kavanagh got over 5,000 first preference votes. Will all those transfer to Mr O'Shaughnessy?

The wild card has to be Mr Nicky Kelly from Arklow, formerly an Independent and now with Labour. In 1997 Mr Kelly polled an impressive 4,900 first preferences. Since then, he has been working hard on local Arklow issues but also highlighting matters of interest to the new urbanites, such as the miserable rail service between Dublin, Wicklow town and Arklow.

If Labour manages its vote well, it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that it could win two seats - McManus and Kelly. But at whose expense? I'll put €10 on Fine Gael not making the cut.

Others to watch: Ms Deirdre de Burca, a Greystones-based Green, and Ms Mairéad Keane, running for Sinn Féin. Neither will get elected but both have their appeal: de Burca generally because of environmental concerns; and Keane may garner support from Bray-based republicans.

Prediction: FF 2, Labour 2, Ind 1. Lab gain from FG.