THERE is a peculiar Tipperary trait, one amateur pundit observed this week. "It takes a long time to get in with them, but once you're in, they'll follow you to the gallows.
It seems Michael Lowry has got the gallows crowd with him in the constituency of North Tipperary. They are looking forward to hanging the victory flags rather than watch their candidate dangle.
His political rivals are already muttering about the split among Fine Gael activists, with a large section of the party machine rising to follow Michael. The level of support for Lowry is attributed by one observer as a backlash against the Dublin media. "If they started to praise him in Dublin he'd lose support here."
The presence of John Bruton's "best friend forever" as an Independent candidate is expected to do the FG candidate, Tom Berkery, out of a seat. The party has responded by sending the former Fine Gael general secretary, Finbarr Fitzpatrick, into the constituency to boost the party chances.
It is an unwieldy constituency, about 60 miles wide between its furthest points with a strong farming community. "It is the marginal of all marginals," Fianna Fail candidate, Michael O'Kennedy, says. He should know. As the "sure thing" in the 1992 election he lost out on the second FF seat by less than 1 per cent.
The party polled more than 47 per cent first votes to win Michael Smith his seat. In 1994 as Minister for the Environment, Smith was personally blamed for the introduction of tougher drink driving laws. His Roscrea home telephone number was pasted up in public phone boxes as a 24 hour taxi service. Some callers told him he would suffer in the next election.
Both Smith and O'Kennedy are seen by political rivals to have their work cut out on the ground, after a time spent in Dublinbased careers as sitting TD and senator. However, the strong agricultural vote, said to resent the idea of Fine Gael's partnership with the "antifarmer" parties of Labour and DL, is expected to form the backbone of their support.
With the retirement of popular Labour TD, John Ryan, his replacement, the former journalist, Kathleen O'Meara, has been impressing people with her performance and apparent ability to summon a stream of Labour Ministers to North Tipp.
She has been building support in Nenagh, the second constituency capital. To counterbalance the perception of the Labour Party as an urban animal she told a meeting of Thurles chamber of commerce this week: "I'm from a rural constituency. I grew up in a rural constituency and the reason I'm standing in this election is to help rural constituencies."
The major local issue is the development of the Tipperary Rural and Business Development Institute (TRBDI). With a centre in Thurles this would have "outreach" centres across the county and was due to take in its first students in 1998. Although the site for the Thurles campus was bought in 1985, the latest obstacle to the development is a council planning levy of almost £600,000 for sewerage and infrastructure.
The frustration was voiced at a local meeting recently that the multimillion pound development was being stalled by a relatively small figure. The grass is growing on the proposed site and people are getting impatient.
There is also resentment that Thurles failed to be designated under the urban renewal incentive scheme, while surrounding towns like Clonmel, Kilkenny and Nenagh enjoy the benefits.
The PD candidate, Dr Joe Hennessy, a GP based in Templemore is not expected to win a seat. Neither is the National Party candidate, Margaret Carey, although she may skim a few first preferences from the main candidates.
Gill is McBain, has proclaimed himself as a protest candidate "against offshore patriots who put their money in one place and their mouths in another". He offered to donate £20 to the TRBDI on condition that they put the money on his chances of a seat. The bookies, he said, are giving odds of 1,000 to one.
