EUROPEAN DIARY:THERE WAS a telling moment when Brian Cowen arrived at his first EU summit as Taoiseach. As EU leaders, foreign ministers and officials gathered for the family photograph, Cowen was banished to the far edge of the group, barely finding a place on the red carpet to stand.
This may become a metaphor for Ireland's future in Europe if some French and German politicians get their way. Shortly after the referendum result became known, France's Europe minister Jean-Pierre Jouyet spoke of finding a "legal manoeuvre" to allow the Lisbon Treaty to be implemented by the 26 member states set to ratify the text while leaving Ireland behind.
At the summit all talk of "isolating" Ireland was restricted to EU officials gossiping in the corridors rather than being said on television. German chancellor Angela Merkel even wore a green jacket to show solidarity with the beleaguered Cowen while quietly urging him to re-run the referendum in the spring. But behind all the smiles, the mood will turn nasty in October or December if he doesn't agree to a re-vote.
So could the other 26 EU states go ahead and implement Lisbon without the Irish? "No", says European Commission president José Manuel Barroso, who explained on Friday "there is a need for unanimity- it is law". But lawyers have already devised a plan that would enable 26 states to implement the reforms in Lisbon without Ireland. Under this strategy, EU leaders could sign a new consolidated Lisbon text and ratify this document in parliament to form a new "EU of 26" running alongside the EU.
"Once re-ratification has been completed in the 26, it would be entirely appropriate for the Irish government to call a second referendum. This referendum would then be about a different question: does Ireland wish to join the EU of 26 with the Lisbon Treaty in force?" says Daniel Gros, director of the Centre for European Policy Studies.
A similar plan was dreamed up when Denmark rejected the Maastricht Treaty in a referendum in 1992. It was never used as the Danes later voted Yes to Maastricht after negotiating opt-outs from the euro, defence, justice and the concept of European citizenship.
On balance, this nuclear option is unlikely to gain the political support of all 26 states, particularly Britain and some new EU states who would object to big power bullying or who simply aren't that fussed about Lisbon's reforms.
Warsaw does not like the proposed changes to the voting system in Lisbon that increase German voting weight in the Council of Ministers against states such as Poland and Spain. And Prague remains suspicious about devolving more power to Brussels after many years spent locked into the Warsaw Pact.
"What if others were to decide that they want the Irish solution too? It would lead to serious unravelling of the EU," says one senior EU official.
But a second Irish No vote or a decision by the Government not to hold a another vote on Lisbon would prompt a political crisis in Europe - something most leaders want to avoid. Cowen acknowledged this when he said other European leaders were "perplexed" by the Irish vote and remained committed to the Lisbon Treaty.
The longest serving European leader, Luxembourg prime minister Jean-Claude Junker, has said a more likely option if there is a second Irish No vote is a "two-speed Europe". Under this scenario, some EU states favouring further European integration in sensitive areas such as tax and defence could move ahead with a closer political union while others would not.
The Government has opposed the concept of a two-speed EU in the past, fearing that Ireland will be relegated to the sidelines of the union. But that public position ignores a suspicion in Ireland to EU integration in areas such as justice, police co-operation, immigration, family law and the defence area, where we have already negotiated the ability to opt out of decisions.
The odds favour a re-vote next spring to please our European partners. The first surveys on why Irish people voted No suggest that people may have been unhappy with the state of the economy, didn't understand the treaty, or feared that Lisbon would encroach on our tax system or Irish neutrality.
A much more alarming scenario for the Government is that the high turnout could suggest Irish people are simply happy with how the EU operates at the moment and do not favour introducing changes to deepen integration. Some academic studies suggest the EU is working fine under the Nice Treaty despite recently enlarging to 27 members. Helen Wallace of the London School of Economics found there is no evidence of the "legislative gridlock" that many observers feared when 10 new states joined the EU in 2004.
Is it possible that the high turnout in the recent referendum suggests the public simply voted on the question they were asked: do they want the Lisbon Treaty or things to continue as they are? This is the question Cowen will have to answer before he returns to Brussels in October to explain how he intends to solve the "Lisbon dilemma".