European constituency profile: EastThe growing urbanisation of ther East constituency may bring changes, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent
There was a time when Leinster, excluding Dublin, could be seen as a substantially rural province with some significant urban centres dotted in between small towns, villages and rural townlands.
But the constant expansion of the capital city has changed the nature of the East constituency. Over 60 per cent of its voters now live in Dublin's commuter belt, if it is defined as comprising those parts that are within an hour of the city.
So voters in Wicklow, Kildare, Meath and Louth and even further afield can now be seen as suburban, rather than provincial or rural voters. Many of them are first-generation Dubliners, or first-generation people from other parts of the State who have come to Dublin to work and have set up home in Leinster because that is where they find the housing they want and can afford.
A substantial group of voters that is concerned about agricultural policy is still a characteristic of the constituency. But there is a growing - perhaps dominant - group preoccupied with transport, the price of housing and community facilities.
In 1999 the constituency elected two Fianna Fáil MEPs (Mr Jim Fitzsimons and Mr Liam Hyland), one Fine Gael (Ms Avril Doyle) and one Green (Ms Nuala Ahern). The constituency has now been reduced from a four-seater to a three-seater and the two sitting Fianna Fáil MEPs and Ms Ahern of the Green Party have bowed out, so at least two new candidates will be elected.
In the reduced-size constituency, Fianna Fáil faces an almost impossible task in seeking to retain its two seats. The relevant, simple mathematical calculation is that to win two seats in a three-seat constituency, a party needs to end up with 50 per cent of the votes by the time the final count is reached. Fianna Fáil's 1999 first-preference vote (34.24 per cent), allowing for the receipt of some transfers from elsewhere, would not have brought it near winning two seats out of three. This time around, all polls and anecdotal evidence suggest the party vote will be diminished. The chances appear non-existent.
The Carlow Kilkenny deputy, Mr Liam Aylward, is acknowledged as the stronger of the two party candidates. He is concentrating on the southern counties, while Fianna Fáil parliamentary party chairman Mr Séamus Kirk is working the northern counties. Mr Aylward may top the poll, leaving Mr Kirk to wait through the later counts.
In Fine Gael, just as Ms Doyle won her European seat at the expense of sitting Fine Gael colleague Alan Gillis, she now faces competition from an enthusiastic running mate who would also be happy to unseat the incumbent.
Agricultural journalist Mairead McGuinness isn't running just to hold up the party's vote in North Leinster while Ms Doyle sweeps up in South Leinster. She wants to be elected.
However Doyle is currently seen as being ahead, incumbency and her long-standing profile as a former Wexford deputy working to her advantage. Fine Gael won 34 per cent of the vote last time - polls suggest it has lost 5-6. Even allowing for the fact that McGuinness is attracting votes that might not traditionally go to Fine Gael, the chances of two Fine Gael seats also appear non-existent.
Ms Nuala Ahern's decision not to contest the election is a blow for the Green Party's chance of holding its seat. Coming from Louth, living in Wicklow, Ms Ahern has held the seat for 10 years, having a consistently high profile. Ms Mary White, the party's vice-president, is from Carlow and won almost 5,000 votes in Carlow/Kilkenny in the 2002 general election. A hard- working campaigner, she will nevertheless struggle to retain Ms Ahern's vote. She was helped last time by Labour's decision to run the relatively unknown Seán Butler. Despite his low profile, Butler attracted 11.1 per cent of the vote compared to Ahern's 13.8 per cent. This time Labour is running Mr Peter Cassells, who served for 12 years as General Secretary of the ICTU. Cassells is a well-known figure with strong urban appeal and has a strong chance of overtaking White to win Labour's first European seat outside Dublin since 1979. He needs to outpoll her on first preferences to win, as the Greens traditionally attract small but important numbers of transfers.
Sinn Féin's Wexford-based Mr John Dwyer won almost 5,000 votes, representing 8.2 per cent of the poll, in the last general election. Outside Wexford he has little profile, although strong Sinn Féin organisations in Louth, Meath and elsewhere are promoting his candidacy during local election campaigns. Their vote has been growing since 2002. The party won 5.6 per cent of the vote last time in Leinster and could rise to around 10 per cent on June 11th. This would not be enough for a seat, but the party's performance may well give the big parties another fright.
None of the independents will challenge for a seat, although there will be some interest in the performance of Mr Justin Barrett, anti-abortion and anti-immigration campaigner. Environmental activist Mr Eoin Dubsky may take a number of Green-oriented votes. The other independents here are Mr Seanán Ó Coistín, from Co Kildare, Mr Joe Neal of Wexford, Mr Liam Ó Gógáin of Dundalk, Co Louth, and Mr Clifford T Reid of Athy, Co Kildare.
Prediction: Liam Aylward (Fianna Fáil), Avril Doyle (Fine Gael), Peter Cassells (Labour). Fianna Fáil and Green Party losses, Labour gain.