Wednesday, June 6th European Central Bank meeting, FrankfurtThe ECB governing council will decide whether to cut interest rates. The meeting comes as pressure builds for new ECB interventions to stabilise markets, which it is resisting. The ECB is in the vanguard of those calling for a pan-European deposit guarantee scheme to prevent bank runs, and may flesh out its views after the meeting.
Sunday, June 10th First round of French parliamentary election
This poll, and a follow-on round of voting on Sunday, June 17th, will determine whether newly installed Socialist president François Hollande (right) achieves a majority in parliament. If he fails, he will find it difficult to advance his pro-growth agenda. Hollande’s slim majority in the presidential election last month suggests this will be no walkover.
Monday, June 11th IMF report on Spain’s banks
The besieged Spanish financial system lost €97 billion in capital flight in the first three months of the year. As Madrid struggles to find the €23.5 billion required to bail out the Bankia group of savings banks, there are fears the looming recapitalisation of other lenders could overwhelm the government. In a preliminary report in April, the IMF called on Spain to “continue and deepen” its financial sector reform.
Sunday, June 17th Greek general election
This is being billed as the most important election in Europe for decades. The inconclusive first election in May saw a surge in support for anti-bailout parties. The big question now is whether pro-bailout establishment parties can regain enough ground to form a government pledged to work the EU-IMF rescue plan.
If not, Greece could be on its way back to dealing in drachmas.
Monday, June 18th Spanish banking stress test
The result of an independent audit of Spain’s banks by international consultants is widely regarded as a moment of truth for the country, which still insists it will not need an international bailout. This exercise is designed to provide clarity on the capital requirements of the banking system generally. The external examination is crucial because market investors distrust domestic assessment of property-related losses in Spain’s banks.
Monday and Tuesday, June 18th and 19th G20 summit, Los Cabos, Mexico
US president Barack Obama will attend, as well as key European figures such as German chancellor Angela Merkel. This all-important gathering will provide an opportunity for global leaders to take stock of the Greek election and the situation in Spain. The euro zone crisis has dominated the G20 agenda in recent times. EU leaders are likely to come under pressure to finally settle the crisis.
Wednesday and Thursday, June 20th and 21st ECB meeting, Frankfurt
Regular meeting of ECB governing council. No press conference scheduled as there is no decision on interest rates during these talks. However, the bank may have to take emergency action to contain contagion in markets if Greeks vote against the bailout.
Thursday, June 21st Meeting of euro zone finance ministers, Luxembourg
This meeting will be crucial given the Greek election four days previously and the Spanish banking stress test. The euro group is where the EU authorities do most of the fire-fighting against the crisis. If Greece is not already well on its way to forming a pro-bailout government by this time, the ministers would have a serious problem on their hands.
Friday, June 22nd Meeting of EU finance ministers, Luxembourg
Non-euro ministers will join their euro zone counterparts at this meeting.
European mini-summit, Rome Italian technocrat premier Mario Monti hosts talks with Merkel, Hollande and Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy. This meeting is a prelude to a formal EU summit one week later.
Saturday, June 23rd Meeting of world central bankers, Basle, Switzerland
These talks – possibly involving ECB chief Mario Draghi and US Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke – will provide an opportunity for top central bankers to discuss the fallout from the Greek election.
Thursday and Friday, June 28th and 29th European summit, Brussels
This is the summit at which EU leaders hope to finalise their new growth strategy. There is every possibility, however, that their work will be overshadowed by the situation in Greece and Spain.
Any vote against the Greek bailout could lead to talks on the country’s departure from the euro. Any continuation of the Spanish bank run might lead to emergency action to create a pan-European guarantee on deposits. The clamour for the European Stability Mechanism fund to be given powers to directly rescue banks may also feature.
Saturday, June 30th Deadline for Greece
This is the date by which Greece must execute 77 austerity and reform measures to ensure the release of the country’s next tranche of EU-IMF aid.
Thursday, July 5th ECB meeting, Frankfurt
Interest rate meeting of ECB governing council.