The last comparable opinion poll in the series, published on April 17th, was conducted during the week following the signing of the Belfast Agreement and showed the Taoiseach's personal rating at an all-time high of 84 per cent and Fianna Fail sitting on a comfortable 57 per cent.
In the circumstances at the time these figures should not have been surprising. Over the previous two years or so - during which time the Northern Ireland peace process had been brought to fruition - it was always on the cards that when an agreement was signed, the Taoiseach of the day would benefit politically and personally. Following the summer hiatus, during which relatively few ripples appeared on the political horizon, significant changes in party support terms would not have been expected, and indeed, so it has transpired. Fianna Fail remains quite heavily supported in the high 50s, with Fine Gael also comparable with its April impact. Labour is marginally up following the party's recent conference in Dromineer, while none of the smaller parties shows any notable movement except, quite significantly, Sinn Fein, which since the Belfast Agreement has stabilised on 3 per cent.
While these figures will give supporters of the two parties in Government considerable satisfaction, there are many precedents which illustrate the volatility of the electorate even in the short term, and it has never been wise or prudent to use mid-term figures as a guide to behaviour in a future election. This certainly applies at the moment when the timing of the next election is expected to be years rather than months ahead. There are a number of parallels between politics and sport and my fellow Kildare men in the Oireachtas realise that irrespective of how favourable the build-up may be, the team must deliver on the day.
In the two final Irish Times/MRBI Campaign Polls prior to the general election of November 1992, Fianna Fail was positioned on 40 per cent, on which basis I commented that "the party may have to settle for the lowest first preference vote for many decades". As many will recall, Fianna Fail obtained 39 per cent, which represented its poorest election performance since September 1927 (when incidentally Kildare won its second-last All-Ireland Football Final). The relevant point here, however, is that less then five months prior to that 1992 election, the Fianna Fail party in government was riding high on 53 per cent, and there appeared to be no reason, following the Maastricht Treaty, why the party would not deliver very satisfactory results in the next election. One of the main lessons of that election of November 1992 is that the circumstances in which an election is called have the potential to exert a crucial influence on the outcome, irrespective of the level of previous mid-term support. One further message, which is more statistical than political, is worth mentioning. Core party support in Table A shows the basic figures in response to the question on current voting intentions. Although it is six months since the last survey, the two sets of data convey a remarkable level of stability in statistical terms.
Each is based on a representative, but mutually independent, sample of electors, and each operates within a variation of plus or minus 3 per cent. In five instances, including the undecided, the figures are identical, and in the other four, the variation is 1 per cent. The fact that the summer hiatus was uneventful is not the only message. While the personal ratings of all party leaders have dropped over the past six months, Bertie Ahern remains in first position on 81 per cent, down three points on his high in April. Mary Harney also continues to be very satisfactorily rated (62 per cent) which represents a non-significant drop of 1 per cent. Ruairi Quinn is on 51 per cent, John Bruton 47 per cent and Proinsias De Rossa on 46 per cent.
Finally, the drop in Government satisfaction ratings to what is still an acceptable level of 68 per cent is primarily accounted for by a not surprising 10-point drop among the farming community.