FF could feel a cold wind from the south

IN THE 1995 constituency review a large slice of Galway West was added to Galway East, while parts of north Galway which had …

IN THE 1995 constituency review a large slice of Galway West was added to Galway East, while parts of north Galway which had been "lent" to Mayo in a previous carve-up returned to the fold. The number of seats in East Galway increased from three to four.

Fianna Fail is assured of two seats and Fine Gael one, leaving the Fourth open to a tight contest between the two parties and the Progressive Democrats.

For the first time in decades there is also the intriguing possibility of a change of personnel in the Fianna Fail camp, for reasons which have more to do with geography than anything else.

The three long-standing TDs include Mr Michael Kitt of Fianna Fail, originally from Tuam but now living near Ballinasloe. He was first elected following the death of his father, also Michael Kitt, in 1975.

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Michael snr had represented the constituency in the Dail since the late 1940s, with one break; his son has held the seat since 1975, with a Four-year gap in the late 1970s.

Mr Noel Treacy from Ballinasloe has held the second Fianna Fail seat since 1982.

The proximity of the two TDs in the centre of the constituency has left the party exposed, especially at the southern end. The surprise selection of Councillor Joe Callanan as a running mate raises the possibility that he may edge out either Mr Kitt or Mr Treacy.

Mr Callanan also lives in the centre of the constituency and holds a respectable Fianna Fail pedigree: his uncle Johnny was a TD for Galway East in the 1970s and 1980s and the Callanan name carries much political weight in the area.

Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Progressive Democrats have all targeted Galway East as a constituency where they can pick up an extra seat. The front-runner is the PD man Joe Burke, who polled well in the last two general elections, taking almost 4,000 first preferences in 1992.

However, Mr Burke, whose home base is Tuam in the north of the constituency, has lost support because of his stance in several local controversies, notably one involving the credit union in Tuam. He is still regarded as the favourite for the last seat, but he will have to work hard.

Fine Gael has adopted a risky vote-management strategy which would deliver the party a second seat if it works.

The sitting TD, Mr Paul Connaughton, has been assigned the northern end of the constituency. His running mate, former Senator Ulick Burke, is working the southern end.

He loses no opportunity to point out the lack of either a Fianna Fail or a PD candidate in his area, and will probably battle it out with his PD namesake For the fourth seat.

The Labour Party has also entered the fray with the former USI president, Mr Colm Keaveney. Starting from his student base, Mr Keaveney (26) is following the same path into national politics taken by Mr Pat Rabbitte and Mr Eamon Gilmore almost 20 years ago.

Mr Keaveney is at least a generation younger than most of his opponents, and his impact on the constituency will be difficult to measure in advance.

He is a native of Tuam, and his transfers could help elect Senator Burke for Fine Gael. But if the Flow was in the other direction they could elect him and produce a major upheaval in the most conservative of constituencies.

On balance, the odds favour the PDs for the last seat. Ms Mary Harney's so-called gaffe over water charges has done little harm in an area heavily dependent on group water schemes. Her honesty has won her admirers.