Mark Durkan's response to the rising Sinn Féin threat is to keep the faith and hold his nerve. Others in the SDLP aren't so sure, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
What was the guiding principle that Mark Durkan learned from his mentor John Hume? "Always look at the big picture," said the SDLP Deputy First Minister in his office at Parliament Buildings, Stormont. Here the big picture on the wall is Optimist's Journey by Noel Murphy, which has replaced some of the horse-racing works favoured by his predecessor, Seamus Mallon.
Mr Durkan wants to go boldly into a hopeful and enterprising future dominated by real rather than sectarian or tribal politics. Six months into his tenure as SDLP leader and Deputy First Minister, he knows only too well the hurdles that await him.
Among centrist nationalists and unionists there is a growing pessimistic view that 12 months hence Northern Ireland will be thrust into fresh political turmoil. Sinn Féin and the DUP are on the rise. Sinn Féin could be the majority nationalist party in the Assembly and who is to say at this stage that Peter Robinson won't have the edge on David Trimble.
We could have an Ulster Unionist and Sinn Féin First and Deputy First Minister, or even a DUP/Sinn Féin combination - that is, if they would operate together. How could such an explosive chemistry possibly work? How can Mr Durkan turn the tide back in the SDLP's favour after Sinn Féin went narrowly ahead of the SDLP in last year's Westminster and local elections? It's a huge task, made even bigger by Sinn Féin's success in the general election.
"For the past while I've been serving two induction courses, as Deputy First Minister and as SDLP leader," he says. That initial learning period completed, he is now compartmentalising his work. His Executive functions still take up much of his time, but he is also devoting longer periods to shaping the party for the confrontations ahead.
There is no doubting Mr Durkan's pragmatism and his innovative and strategic capabilities. Much of his stamp is in the detail of the Belfast Agreement. From John Hume and a period in Ted Kennedy's office, he has fashioned a can-do attitude to politics. His party respects that but some feel that what he can do extremely well, he does too quietly.
Some SDLP figures have grumbled about Mr Durkan's critical but temperate response to Mr Trimble's comments about the South being a "pathetic, sectarian" state. A visceral tongue-lashing of the First Minister was required to stir up the troops, said one senior party member. Again Mr Durkan is his own quiet man. "What needed to be said was said. It wasn't over- said, it wasn't under-said."
He does the right thing for the right reason, travelling to London for the Queen Mother's funeral, and being with David Trimble to greet Queen Elizabeth at Hillsborough.
He favours a new nationalism shorn of flag-waving, triumphalism and sectarianism. But isn't all that part and parcel of a populist approach to politics which Sinn Féin will exploit to its advantage and the SDLP's disadvantage? The SDLP won't play that game, he insists.
"We are not going to get into a situation where at a rhetorical level Sinn Féin is talking about wanting to reconcile with unionism but then talks about greening the west [of the Bann]. We want to reach out to unionists rather than reach for unionists."
Everything comes back to the Good Friday deal and its logic of creating consensual politics in a society that is almost evenly split along unionist and nationalist lines - the big picture again. "There are some unionists who want to renegotiate the agreement to make the union stronger, and you have Sinn Féin saying that it is a temporary phenomenon. Our view is that the agreement is as much a point of departure as arrival. The SDLP has a responsibility to stick by the agreement and underpin it."
And that's the conundrum for Mr Durkan: too much dedication to responsible civic-minded politics isn't necessarily going to garner extra votes, particularly if Sinn Féin is playing the green card. Mr Durkan is conscious that the voting public can be infuriatingly ungrateful. "I am acutely aware of the difference between vindication and reward," he says.
It's the kernel of the problem for the SDLP: how to translate political credit into electoral benefit for the party.
"We have to ensure that our achievements serve us better. We have to make sure that we get a better return for our sounder judgment. We will be appealing for votes on the basis of our record. We will fight the Assembly election to win a strong mandate for the SDLP so that we will continue to deliver results that will help sustain the agreement. We won't be inhibited or self-conscious about making our case," he says.
There are 12 months to the next election, the public mood could switch back to the centre by then, he feels. In the meantime, he is attempting to address the SDLP's organisational deficit. He recently held a weekend "retreat" in Armagh with his Assembly team to prepare for the travails ahead.
He maintains unwavering confidence in John Hume's notion of the big picture, of the long view, of responsible politics. But the notion of virtue being its own reward does not sit easily in politics. None the less, Mr Durkan has no intention of shifting from the dangerous middle ground. The SDLP will hold to its position as chief custodian of the agreement. "What we will never do is abandon our strategy," he says.