Stormont is paralysed but a local election in Fermanagh has stirred up party rivalries, writes Dan Keenan
A BYELECTION to a local council following a little local spat between the parties is not normally the stuff that quickens the political pulse.
But these are no ordinary times, and tomorrow's election to fill a vacant seat on Fermanagh District Council will have an effect 90 miles away on a paralysed Executive at Stormont.
Such is its importance that Assembly members have been canvassing and a senior Minister is among the six candidates.
Arlene Foster, the Industry Minister, is seeking a return to the council where she cut her teeth in an effort to keep the seat from nationalist hands.
The vacancy arises after the death of DUP man Joe Dodds, father of Foster's colleague Nigel Dodds, the Finance Minister. Normally there would have been a co-option, but the UUP objected, forcing this by-election.
Foster feels the need to run because of the scale of the campaign by Sinn Féin, which is quietly hopeful. But there is also the challenge by the Ulster Unionists who take delight in pointing up what they see as a monumental DUP U-turn on sharing power with republicans.
An intervention by former Ulster Unionist minister Sam Foster - Foster's uncle - who cited her young family and ministerial workload to question her suitability to run, has added a nasty tone.
If the stakes are high, the margins are tiny. The difference between unionist and nationalist totals at the last council election in 2005 was less than 200.
Transfers will prove as crucial as the ability of the contenders to prove they, and only they, are capable of winning the seat. Because of this both the DUP and Sinn Féin insist this is a two-horse race.
Sinn Féin candidate Debbie Coyle, originally from London, says its canvass returns prove the choice is between her and Foster.
Her campaign is unashamedly based on local issues. Taking a break from the campaign in her cramped, busy headquarters, she says: "The people that I deal with bring in local issues - housing, facilities, benefits and welfare rights."
Asked if she is the only nationalist who can win, she simply responds: "Yes".
Foster believes this election should not be happening. Citing previous co-options she mentions the 20-year-old DUP man they had hoped to nominate. However, with so much at stake it was felt necessary to draft in a bigger name. But there are risks - not only for Foster but also for First Minister Peter Robinson, whose first electoral outing this is as party leader.
Pointing to the area's, demography, she talks up the need to "keep the seat in unionist hands". Citing the same logic as her Sinn Féin rival, she claims she is the only candidate from her camp who can win the seat.
However, that is not an analysis shared by either the SDLP or the Ulster Unionists. Rosemary Flanagan last stood for the SDLP 22 years ago, and she queries the solidity of the Sinn Féin support.
"They are trying to delude the electorate," she claims. "Sinn Féin has splits within the party. . . People are confused about the direction of Sinn Féin and are not likely to vote for them."
Sinn Féin has lost members since deciding to back the PSNI, including local Assembly member Gerry McHugh.
His daughter, 18-year-old Karen, the youngest candidate in Northern Ireland, is running on a pro-republican but anti-Sinn Féin ticket, making a direct appeal to very young voters and contesting Sinn Féin's claim to represent nationalism.
Basil Johnston, the Ulster Unionist candidate, admits his party once easily eclipsed the DUP locally, but claims the DUP's new dominance is declining.
"There is a disillusionment with them. The opposition they were offering was hollow, there was no substance to it. People are beginning to realise that." He sees Foster's campaign as "a mark of desperation".
It would have been better for the DUP to pick "a lower-profile candidate", adding it will be a very serious blow for her and the DUP is she loses.
Alliance is running local doctor Kumar Kamble, who is appealing for support on purely local issues.