The Government's decision that Dublin's light rail system should go underground in the city centre is a gutless response to irrational fears that there would be a huge political backlash over the disruption caused by construction of CIE's on-street alternative.
It flies in the face of the W.S. Atkins study - commissioned last October by the Minister for Public Enterprise, Ms O'Rourke - which recommended going ahead with CIE's plan for a Luas line between Tallaght and Sandyford, running on-street through the city centre.
The decision has been dressed up as "Le Grand Plan", with proposed extensions to Ballymun/Dublin Airport and Connolly Station, and the possibility of serving Finglas, Docklands and Cabinteely in the future, but it is clear that nothing will be done until 2000, or even later.
The idea that even the first phase of this "something for everyone" scenario could all be built for "£400 million-plus" is pie-in-the-sky. The Atkins study said a "short tunnel" in the city centre would add £100 million to CIE's scheme, which it costed at £263 million.
The suggestion that extensions to serve Ballymun, Dublin Airport and Connolly Station could all be built for £37 million-plus is patently ludicrous, given that CIE has estimated the Ballymun line alone at £100 million. The Government's sums just don't add up.
The EU's £114 million is gone, at least for Luas, with only the fervent hope that some further money might be extracted from Brussels in the post-1999 round of structural funds - if, indeed, Ireland qualifies for such aid. In the meantime, it will be spent on "other projects".
"Le Grand Plan", therefore, must be seen as wholly aspirational. It has effectively killed off the current Luas project and left Judge Sean O'Leary in a complete quandary about what precisely he is to inquire into when the Luas public inquiry is scheduled to resume on June 2nd.
In opting for a "short tunnel" in the city centre, the Cabinet has not only rejected the principal recommendation of W.S. Atkins but has also decided to proceed with a scheme which was specifically rejected by the independent consultants in their £200,000 review of the project.
Their study, published last week, examined a variety of tunnelling options, including a "short tunnel" between St Stephen's Green and Smithfield, with underground stations at Trinity College, O'Connell Street and the Jervis Shopping Centre in Middle Abbey Street.
Though it found that this option had the "least negative" financial return, Atkins concluded that its key rationale was dubious because Dublin Corporation's proposed traffic management measures would remove much of the traffic conflict it would be intended to avoid.
"The short tunnel option is forecast to generate less revenue than the surface option, with the journey time reductions offset in demand terms by fewer and less accessible stations," the report said. It "also fails to offer any capacity advantages relative to the surface option".
Atkins also pointed out that the case for going underground needed to be considered in the context of possible future extensions to the light rail system. It concluded that all of the tunnelling options were "less conducive" to extensions serving Ballymun, Finglas and Docklands.
The report explained that putting Luas in a tunnel between St Stephen's Green and Smithfield would concentrate maximum capacity on an east-west axis, whereas the highest demand is forecast on the north-south section between O'Connell Street and Ranelagh.
It said this problem could be "mitigated" by running all services from Ballymun, Tallaght and Docklands towards Ranelagh. "However, this would result in poorer frequencies on each of the three northern branches and would be less attractive in demand terms."
Atkins concluded that the short tunnel option was "not favoured" because of its limited ability to "deliver" the potential benefits of an underground section in terms of increased capacity. "Benefits in terms of avoiding impact upon road traffic are also likely to be small."
Despite these drawbacks, all clearly spelled out in the consultants' report, the Cabinet yesterday decided in favour of the short tunnel option. In doing so, it would appear to have been heavily influenced by the views of the Tanaiste, Ms Harney, and her party's transport policy.
Two months ago, the Progressive Democrats produced a document entitled Transport in Dublin: A City in Crisis, which proposed a short tunnel option for Luas between St Stephen's Green and Broadstone - just as the Government's decision, not coincidentally, did yesterday.
Largely compiled by Mr Gerry Duggan, an engineer and business development manager of ESB International, the PD policy said CIE's on-street scheme - simply by closing some streets to private cars - was "likely to throw road traffic throughout the city into chaos".
The document said last year's morning rush blockade by taxi drivers showed "if proof was needed, that Dublin already has an inadequate north-south through-traffic capacity and any further restriction will lead to total gridlock, at least until the M50 is completed".
In this light, the PDs argued that the whole Luas project "needs to be refocused" with the aim of solving the north-south capacity problem by going underground to avoid conflict with road traffic in the "extremely critical" St Stephen's Green/Westmoreland Street area.
The ramp leading into the tunnel portal would take up more than a third of the west side of St Stephen's Green, effectively eliminating public use of the "generally underused" footpath at this location. Much of the remainder of the footpath would be used as a tram stop.
Given that this PD policy document, replete with references to the need to "improve traffic flows" throughout the city, is of such recent vintage, it was bound to play a significant role in the thinking of the Tanaiste and her PD colleagues, Mr Robert Molloy and Ms Liz O'Donnell.
Fianna Fail Ministers, many of whom have no convictions about the matter either way, would have been swayed by Ms Harney's arguments for going underground as this option seemed the safest bet to avoid the wrath of motorists over the disruption created by an on-street Luas.
Putting Luas underground, even for a relatively short distance, will do nothing to reduce traffic and the pollution it causes. It also undermines the case for Dublin Corporation's traffic management measures, which were primarily designed to cater for an on-street light rail system.
Although Ms O'Rourke stoutly maintained last night that these measures - aimed at diverting through-traffic from the central area - would still go ahead, even though Luas is to go underground, it may be expected that they will meet strong resistance from the roads' lobby.
The Government's decision demonstrates that there is no political will to take the hard, potentially unpopular decisions now required even to begin sorting out Dublin's traffic problems; it shows that Ministers lack the courage to tread on the toes of vested interests.
By deciding to take the "easy option" of putting Luas underground on the north-south axis of the city centre, the Cabinet has effectively filleted the DTI (Dublin Transportation Initiative) strategy, of which an on-street Luas was an essential component. The DTI is also dead.
Neither can Ms Harney or any other Minister say what the cost is likely to be - because they simply don't know. Without trial bore-holes to examine geological conditions, the figure is unquantifiable at this stage; it will take at least six to nine months to get a clearer picture.