The differing fates of two EU leaders show personality still plays a key role in politics
SPECULATION ABOUT the fate of two prime ministers is gripping Brussels this week following Czech leader Mirek Topolanek’s spectacular fall from grace and Denmark’s Anders Fogh Rasmussen’s emergence as the clear favourite to become the next head of Nato.
The collapse of Topolanek’s government last Tuesday drew an almost uniform sigh of dismay and incredulity from other EU leaders, who are fearful of the debilitating effect it will have on the last three months of the Czech Republic’s presidency of the Union.
Of course, the day-to-day work of the presidency – chairing meetings and negotiating new legislation – will go on. But Topolanek’s loss of authority, even if he is able to lead a caretaker government until July, will damage his ability to wrest compromises from other EU leaders on crucial issues. It will also undermine the position of the presidency when it comes to conducting international relations and chairing upcoming EU summits.
“For the stability and image of Europe, it is going to become more difficult,” admitted Luxembourg foreign minister Jean Asselborn shortly after Topolanek lost a vote of no confidence in the Czech parliament. Most commentators noted such instability couldn’t have happened at a worse time, with Europe struggling to cope with the worst recession in 60 years and attempting to present a united front at this week’s G20 summit.
Topolanek also didn’t do Europe any favours through his comments made to MEPs in Strasbourg just a day after his government collapsed when he said President Obama’s economic recovery plan of spending more public money to escape recession amounted to a “road to hell”.
Topolanek later told the Czech press he was inspired by heavy metal music to go off script during his speech to the European parliament. “AC/DC played here [in Prague] last week,” he told the Czech daily Lidovy Noviny. “And their cult song, Highway to Hell, might have led me in that very improvised speech to use the phrase ‘road to hell’.” Despite the huge controversy generated by the remark in the US and across Europe, Topolanek has refused to withdraw it. In an article published in the Times he described his controversial comments as a “legitimate warning” to a friend, although he insisted it should not be interpreted as criticism of the US administration.
“Topolanek is hot-blooded and finds it difficult to hold back from speaking bluntly,” says Johana Grohova, correspondent at the Czech 24-hour TV station Z1. “He comes from northern Moravia and so isn’t part of the political establishment in Prague, which has led some to label him a peasant. But he is a very talented political street fighter.”
Topolanek’s impulsive personality (he once described the Lisbon treaty as “shit” and is famous for raising his middle finger in a rude gesture in a debate in the Czech parliament in 2007) may be well suited to the cut and thrust of Czech politics but it doesn’t fit the European stage, which requires patient coalition-building and diplomacy. The events of last week are causing most pro-Europeans to bemoan the fact that a permanent European Council president, as envisaged in the Lisbon Treaty, has not yet come into being.
Topolanek’s political difficulties contrast sharply with the emergence of Danish prime minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen as the clear favourite to take the post of Nato secretary general at this week’s Nato summit.
Rasmussen, who has led a stable coalition in Denmark since 2001, has already won the support of the US, Germany, Britain and France for the post. Only Turkey can still sabotage his candidature over concerns that the Danish leader may alienate the Muslim world over his insensitive handling of the Muhammad cartoons controversy in 2007. Opponents say his decision not to agree to a request by ambassadors from Muslim countries to meet to discuss the controversy caused by the publication of the cartoons in a Danish newspaper inflamed the situation unnecessarily. Rasmussen counters that he was standing up for freedom of the press.
But the odds are that the soft-spoken Dane will be offered the job. He is well respected in Nato circles for being one of the few European prime ministers to put troops into the more dangerous southern parts of Afghanistan.
He also sent Danish troops to Iraq, a decision that caused terminal political damage to British prime minister Tony Blair and US president George Bush but which has not fatally damaged Rasmussen.
“He rarely gets angry or at least shows it. He is very measured, controlled and is known as ‘the man with the plan’. He just doesn’t do things without thinking them through,” says Thomas Lauritzen, correspondent with the Danish daily newspaper, Politiken.
Rasmussen’s “iceman” image contrasts sharply with Topolanek’s “hothead” persona, although on ideology grounds there is probably little between the two men. Both lead centre-right coalitions that support free market policies and are strongly pro-American.
Perhaps the key lessons to be drawn from their contrasting fortunes this week is that personality still plays a key role in politics and Brussels simply isn’t ready for the type of blunt language that can get things done at national level and remains the staple of most AC/DC lyrics.