WITH TAIWAN’S presidential elections taking place this weekend, what is notable across the strait dividing the island from mainland China is the absence of the usual sabre-rattling and harsh rhetoric before the polls.
The Xinhua news agency’s coverage of Taiwan this week shows no sign of China’s usual disquiet at the elections in its bitter rival, which has on occasion seen Beijing launch missiles in the direction of Taiwan.
It is almost like China is learning how to play a longer game. China sees Taiwan as a renegade province, to be brought back into the fold at any cost, by force if necessary, and its rhetoric generally reflects this. The state media likes to warn the parties in Taiwan that any attempt to set up an independent “republic of Taiwan” would end in war.
This week we have seen a light story about Taiwanese “Mandopop” singer Genie Chuo signing autographs to promote her new album and a favourable report about how mainland Chinese airlines are putting on hundreds of extra flights for Taiwanese businessmen who want to go home for the Chinese new year holiday.
There are an estimated one million Taiwanese in China.
There has even been a straight election story about the final preparations being made by the Kuo-mingtang (KMT) Nationalist candidates and the independence-minded Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) opposition.
Polls show China-friendly Ma Ying-jeou’s KMT still has a narrow lead over opposition leader Tsai Ing-wen. Mr Ma can point to the strong economic benefits that cross-strait closeness has brought and he describes the rapprochement as “the first line of defence”.
“The cross-strait rapprochement that began three years ago continues to bear fruit and increase regional peace and stability,” Mr Ma said in a recent speech. However, he warned the region’s future held many pitfalls.
“Intransigence, overconfidence or unilateral pursuit of national interests could lead to a losing scenario for all relevant parties,” he said.
Mr Ma has brought Taiwan and China closer than at any time since 1949, when the KMT, which used to run all of China, lost the civil war to the communists and fled to the island.
The KMT may be the Chinese Communist Party’s old enemies but this is a classic case of “better the devil you know”; there have also been no military manoeuvres to mark the elections.
Beijing has found working with Mr Ma much easier than his predecessor Chen Shui-bian, who is serving 17½ years for corruption and money laundering.
China is keen to keep tensions to a minimum as it gears up for its own leadership transition, which is expected to see President Hu Jintao hand over the reins to his anointed successor, Xi Jingping.
While a DPP victory would ordinarily raise hackles in Beijing, there is a sense that Ms Tsai is a different prospect to Mr Chen.
Unlike her predecessor, she rarely mentions independence, focusing more on Taiwan’s democracy – Taiwan is the only Chinese territory which can boast universal suffrage.