BRITAIN: Tony Blair survived last night's Commons vote, and will probably survive Lord Hutton's report today. But his authority has been damaged severely, suggests Frank Millar.
More a near-squeak than victory for Tony Blair in the Commons vote on university fees. But has his survival come at the price of another display of Gordon Brown's power as his putative successor?
Yesterday morning's headlines had Mr Blair facing near-certain defeat on his government's flagship policy on university "top-up" fees.
But within hours, Westminster was awash with the news that the ringleader of Labour's top-up fees rebellion - former chief whip Nick Brown - had performed a spectacular U-turn. Where previously this had been a matter of "principle", further concessions would now allow him to support the government.
The conspiracy theories followed swiftly. Had the screws been turned on the man whose job in the first Blair term had been to bully and cajole backbench dissidents into line?
Had Gordon Brown taken the advice of the muscular Lord Rooker and warned his friend and ally he could not expect to serve in any future government led by him if he voted to damage Mr Blair on the eve of the Hutton report?
Possibly. But such spin is like the Chancellor's budget statements, demanding of second and subsequent examination. Nick Brown explained his about-turn by proclaiming new concessions, including "new money" and an investigation into the wider problem of student debt for those entering the professions.
Downing Street denied any changes to "the principles" of the Higher Education Bill, while the Tories suspected an attempt to mask yet another climbdown by Mr Blair. Disappointed Labour rebels wondered if Nick Brown had exaggerated the position to cover his own embarrassment. Others suggested the only plausible explanation was that the Chancellor himself had brokered a deal with the chief outrider for his future leadership ambitions, while perhaps neglecting to tell Number 10.
Such a "breakdown" in communications between the Downing Street rivals would not be without precedent. Nor was it beyond both to shelter behind a deliberate fog of confusion. But either explanation seemed more probable than one which had the Chancellor facing down his most loyal lieutenant at the behest of the Blairites.
After all, it has become something of a feature of Blair crises - as in the build-up to the Iraq war, or the vote on foundation hospitals - for the Chancellor to maintain silence long enough to fuel doubts about his support for the policy, before going public and riding to the rescue.
Each victory won in such circumstances carries a hint of eventual defeat for Mr Blair. MP Austin Mitchell voiced the frustration of many when he said it took a particular form of "incompetence" for a government with a Commons majority of 160-plus to produce such a cliff-hanger.
A hard core of the rebels are Old Labourites who despise the "New" Labour project. Another dedicated band of former ministers, and those who never were, find voice in Ms Clare Short's determination that Mr Blair should stand down and enable his party to "renew" itself before the next election. Into the mix goes the irritation of many party loyalists with a "presidential" leadership style that too often detects treachery and betrayal even in honest dissent.
And informing and distorting everything, of course, the legacy of a bitterly disputed war, the question of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction, and a Downing Street reputation for spin which today may go to the heart of the Hutton report.
In the terms set, Mr Blair has cleared the first of the two hurdles threatening the most problematic week of his premiership. And Lord Hutton may well clear him of lying over the Iraqi weapons dossier - and of personal responsibility for the naming of Dr David Kelly as the source for BBC claims that Number 10 "sexed it up" against the advice of the intelligence services.
Yet last night's victory translates ultimately into another tax on the middle-classes, who are so vital to New Labour's election victories. And even if it is Mr Blair's outriders who catch whatever blame Lord Hutton ascribes to government, the polls suggest the Kelly affair has already inflicted lasting damage on its reputation for trust. It will not be easily recovered.
Follow the latest breaking news as Lord Hutton's report is published in London this afternoon on The Irish Times website at: www.ireland.com