Big rise in Coalition support

THE Government's satisfaction rating has increased dramatically since the Budget to its highest level ever, according to the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll published today.

Fine Gael is the main beneficiary, with its support rising to 27 per cent, the highest for the party since the last general election in 1992.

The personal ratings of the Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, and the Minister for Social Welfare, Mr De Rossa, have increased significantly.

The first poll in election year was conducted among a quota sample of 1,000 electors at 100 sampling points throughout all constituencies last Monday and Tuesday, January 27th and 28th, a few days after the Budget.

The state of the parties, excluding the 17 per cent undecided, is Fianna Fail 45 per cent, down one point since December; Fine Gael 27 per cent, up three points; Labour 10 per cent, no change; PDs 9 per cent, down two points; Democratic Left 2 per cent no change; Green Party 3 per cent, up one point; and Others 4 per cent, down one point.

The core support for the parties is: Fianna Fail 38 per cent; Fine Gael 22 per cent; Labour 8 per cent; PDs 8 per cent; DL 1 per cent; Green Party 2 per cent; Others 4 per cent; and 17 per cent are "don't knows".

The satisfaction rating for the three party Coalition has risen by 11 per cent, from 39 per cent to 50 per cent in six weeks, in the wake of the Budget. This is unusual so close to a general election.

The Taoiseach's rating has increased to 58 per cent, up five points since December, his second highest poll since the Government was formed. But the PD leader, Ms Mary Harney, has a satisfaction level of 69 per cent, down two points, significantly ahead of all other leaders.

The satisfaction rating for Mr Spring is 51 per cent, down one point, while the DL leader and; Minister for Social Welfare, Mr De Rossa, stands at 46 per cent, up six points. The Fianna Fail leader, Mr Bertie Ahern, has increased his rating to 59 per cent, up one point in the same period.

With two coalition alternatives being put to voters this year, 44 per cent would prefer a Fianna Fail/PD government, while 32 per cent would favour the present three party combination.

Interesting findings emerge as the preferences of party supporters. Some 76 per cent of Fianna Fail voters and 68 per cent of PD voters favour a Fianna Fail/FD government. But 68 per cent of Fine Gael supporters and 70 per cent of Labour supporters prefer a Fine Gael/Labour/DL government.

The Budget is perceived to be popular among voters, with 18 per cent believing it will lead to a rise in living standards. This is twice the normal satisfaction rating for a Budget. Some 67 per cent think the standard of living will remain the same.

One in every four voters, 25 per cent, believes that the Budget will create jobs, compared to 61 per cent who think it will make no difference.

The Government as a whole can bake comfort from the closing in the gap in combined support between the current Coalition and the Fianna Fail/PD alternative to 115 per cent. But Mr Bruton and Fine Gael are the beneficiaries of the Budget introduced by the Labour Minister for Finance.