A senior economist opposed to the Shannon stopover said that now would be the wrong time to seek its removal.
Speaking ahead of next Tuesday's EU Transport Ministers' meeting which could decide its fate, Prof Donal Dineen said: "Right now when Shannon Airport and the national airline are already struggling with the loss of the US business, it is a disastrous time to seek its removal."
Prof Dineen, head of the University of Limerick's Department of Economics, said yesterday: "With Shannon already experiencing a loss of business, in the interests of balanced development you don't then remove a vital support to the airport. It is like kicking someone when they are down." However, he conceded the stopover "should have been removed when the economic situation was better than it currently is".
Prof Dineen was speaking after Tβnaiste Ms Mary Harney said this week its continuation cannot be guaranteed, while Ryanair chief executive Mr Michael O'Leary said it would go within 12 months.
However, a spokesman for SIGNAL, the Shannon workers' lobby, said yesterday, following meetings with Minister for Public Enterprise Ms Mary O'Rourke and TDs: "We have been reassured by all the politicians we met that the bilateral agreement with the US governing the stopover is not up for negotiation with the EU and will be up for review in 2003 as scheduled, not before."
Mr John Cushnahan (FG), Munster MEP, said: "The EU has a policy about regional development and it must uphold this policy and retain the stopover because of the impact it has on regional development in our area."
Even without the stopover's removal, however, the immediate prospects for the airport look grim. The cutting of routes since September 11th has caused dismay, with airport bosses at Shannon forecasting a drop of 800,000 passengers next year, 30 per cent of traffic.
One of the chief industrialists in the region, Mr Pat Shanahan, vice-president of US-owned Tellabs, said yesterday the routes already cut have had a substantial effect. "It makes the region more difficult to access, less attractive for inward investment and further exacerbates the east-west divide."
Shannon Development has recognised that tourism will be in crisis next year and has set up an inter-agency task force to avert a meltdown.
The airport is particularly vulnerable to the collapse of transatlantic business, which until now has accounted for 36 per cent of Shannon's business, compared to 7 per cent at Dublin.
Citing this figure, Fine Gael leader Mr Michael Noonan said for Shannon to survive, it was critical that Aer Lingus remained viable and that a plan was put in place by the Government, EU and unions to secure the airline.
Mr Noonan, who will meet with airport interests at Shannon on Monday, said: "Already, the airport has lost 68 flights per week since September 11th and Shannon is in deep crisis. If the national airline goes, Shannon will become a small, insignificant regional airport."
The president of SIPTU's aviation branch, Mr Pat Fitzgerald, said: "There is a lot of anxiety and I don't think that there is the awareness along the western seaboard of the impact a downgrading of Shannon would have on the economy and future of the region."
Arthur Quinlan adds:
EU Transportation Commissioner Ms Loyola de Palacio's intent to liberalise the European Aviation Industry triggers memories of the adverse effect of the change in the bilateral agreement.
It came into effect in summer 1994 when transatlantic flights were allowed directly into Dublin Airport. The number of transit passengers at Shannon dropped that year from 707,993 in 1993 to 465,627 and the number of aircraft fell by just 1,000.
At that time, Shannon was just recovering from the effects of the Gulf War three years previously. The arrival of the Russian airline, Aeroflot, had been a welcome relief during the vacuum caused by the Gulf War but this business began to decline in the mid-1990s.
In 1994, US tourists began to return to Europe. Also, Aer Rianta took over the marketing of Shannon and new services from Britain and Europe were introduced. This helped to keep up terminal traffic, although there was an overall drop after the bilateral agreement was changed. It was not until 1996 that these figures were restored and they have continued to grow until they reached 2.4 million last year.