All together for one more big push to stave off disaster

Once more unto the breach, dear friends

Once more unto the breach, dear friends. The peace process, which seemed dead on its feet, has been given an injection of energy by this week's Irish TimesRTE poll and the determination of the British Prime Minister to make one last major effort to halt the gradual slide towards disaster.

While there are grounds for scepticism about the exercise, nevertheless on Thursday all eyes will be focused on Downing Street as Mr Blair and Mr Ahern preside over what may be the last big push before the summer. The clear message from the public in the poll was "Get on with it" and the message from the two prime ministers to Messrs Trimble, Adams and Hume will probably be "How about it?".

Even if the chemistry turns out to be wrong on "Super Thursday", official politics will continue over the summer, albeit probably in skeletal form. The four-letter word you dare not mention is "park".

Tripartite meetings took place in Stormont this week between teams from the Ulster Unionists, SDLP and Sinn Fein. Much to the frustration of waiting journalists nothing was said afterwards beyond a cryptic press statement that the "useful discussions" would continue on Tuesday.

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Mr John Hume is more centrally involved than he has been for some time. His proposal that Sinn Fein commit itself to a "self-expulsion" clause, to be activated if the party were in government and its friends in the IRA went back to violence, was considered helpful in nationalist quarters but caused annoyance to unionists. It took some of the heat off Sinn Fein by pushing decommissioning farther down the road.

While Mr Hume's idea might never be adopted in practice, at least it had the merit in some people's eyes of getting the governments off the decommissioning hook.

Thinking-caps have been put back on and different ideas are being floated to move the process forward or at least arrest its backward slide. The notion of a "transitional executive" is being mentioned: this body would consist of the persons nominated for ministerial portfolios by the various parties but would have neither power nor the capacity to assume power unless the decommissioning problem was solved.

Although it was lost in the clamour of republican vituperation, there was an interesting tactical move by the unionists at the time of Hillsborough. In order to put pressure on the republicans and isolate them politically, the UUP agreed that candidates for ministerial office could be listed, on the understanding that the IRA would put weapons "beyond use" before those candidates received the keys of their state cars.

A refined version of that idea is still in the air but could once more come a cropper on the republican principle of "Can't disarm, won't disarm".

Serious work is going on behind the scenes, as evidenced by reports of private meetings between (1) Mr Blair and Mr Adams (2) Mr Trimble and Mr Blair, and (3) Mr Adams and Mr Trimble. It is understood little or no progress was made in these meetings but they could prove significant in the long run. Mr Trimble's initiative in calling a meeting of local politicians on Drumcree should also be helpful.

In the background the shadowy loyalist groups continue with their deadly work. Fears are growing that a realignment within loyalism could lead to the marginalisation of leading figures in that quarter who support the peace process.

The callous and brutal killing of Rosemary Nelson has aroused fears that other high-profile individuals in the nationalist community may be under threat. In that context the governments need to be extremely careful what signal they send out in the coming weeks: they must not give the death-squads grounds for believing their campaign can derail the Good Friday pact.

The notion that the Belfast Agreement is dead has been gaining currency, especially among the republican grassroots. The Ulster Marketing Surveys poll for The Irish Times and RTE's Prime Time showed there was a strong public mood on all sides of the community for keeping the pact alive, overcoming current difficulties and keeping the Assembly in existence.

Official sources in both Dublin and London were pleased with the figures which provided a badly-needed fillip at a difficult moment. Meanwhile, SDLP morale received a boost from Wednesday night's celebration of John Hume's 30 years in politics. There was a confident air about this well-attended and good-humoured gathering in Belfast's Europa Hotel and nothing at all to suggest a community about to accept defeat.

The imminence of the European elections, which the Rev Ian Paisley is turning into a second referendum on the agreement, and the fact that Drumcree looms ever closer mean next Thursday probably is the last chance for Mr Blair and Mr Ahern to broker a deal between the parties before the summer.

There is extreme nervousness both in republican and unionist camps about the likely turn of events in the coming weeks and months. The marching season is a perennial time-bomb and the efforts of loyalist gunmen are bound to bear deadly fruit sooner or later.

With the security information at their disposal, the two prime ministers are bound to be more aware of the dangers than anyone else. There may not be much hope around, but there is a strong sense of urgency.