"WHERE IS the market now and where is it going?" were the sticky questions put to 45 Dublin estate agents as part of research ambitiously billed as the "definitive" survey of the capital's residential market.
"Who knows the absolute facts better than those at the coalface?" argue researchers at Colliers Jackson-Stops who carried out the survey, which was published yesterday.
While agents seem more-or-less agreed on where we are, the jury is out on when confidence will return to the market.
Almost seven out of 10 agents (67 per cent) say that values have fallen back by 20-25 per cent in the €600,000 to €1 million house price category since the peak in 2006. Some 66 per cent of those surveyed believe that houses in the €1 million to €2.5 million category have lost between 25 and 30 per cent of their value since 2006.
When asked to gaze into a crystal ball, a whopping 96 per cent of estate agents surveyed believe that values will fall further in the next 12 months.
Eight out of 10 agents predict that values will fall by a further five to 10 per cent in the €600,000 to €2.5 million house price bracket in the next 12 months.
Further house price drops close to 10 per cent were predicted by the majority (70 per cent) for €2.5 million to €5 million properties.
When it came to the big question of where we are going, opinion is divided.
Some 44 per cent of those surveyed predicted that stability will return in 2009, 24 per cent said it would not be until the spring of 2010, while a sizeable portion, 22 per cent, predict trouble for at least another two years.
Finally, when it came to predictions on how the market will behave post-return, nine out of 10 (91 per cent) forecasted a slow and steady growth of between three and 5 per cent.
The remaining 9 per cent predicted a quick rise of about 15 per cent followed by a period of steady growth.
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