Remarkable year reflects the strength of occupier demand

THIS year was a record one for the retail market and" the records are unlikely to be challenged for at least a decade

THIS year was a record one for the retail market and" the records are unlikely to be challenged for at least a decade. The 970,000-square-foot increase in floor space represents close to a 25 per cent increase for Dublin.

With almost one million square feet of additional retail space opened during the year, the success of developers and agents in pre-letting/pre-selling over 95 per cent of this space prior to opening is in itself a remarkable feat and a reflection of the strength of retail occupier demand.

Over £15 million per annum worth of rents were signed during the year and this, combined with the premiums which were paid for some anchor stores, represent a total capital value of retail transact ions during the year of almost £250 million.

Perhaps even more notable is that the majority of this new space is, in colloquial retail terms "tradings its socks off" with the retailers' target expectations being exceeded by generous margins. There is a danger in listing important transactions of omitting many but the trading success and style of Blanchardstown the remarkable construction feat and trading success of the Jervis Shopping Centre, the quality and trading success of the new Marks & Spencer store in Grafton Street and the virtually instant preletting of The Square extension, all merit mention.

READ MORE

It has certainly been the year of the large space user. Over one million square feet of large space units was either agreed, contracted or opened during 1996 with many of the retailers gaining their representation in the Republic for the first time including Debenhams, Boots, C & A, Dixons and Argos.

The underlying strength of the retail spend is clearly illustrated by the fact that for many of these retailers, their new Irish outlets are in the top three stores within their entire chains, including the Debenhams store at the Jervis Shopping Centre, which is reported to be its premier store out of 90. Against this background, it is already clear that UK retailers will continue their expansion throughout the Republic.

Marks & Spencer's intentions in relation to south county Dublin, Galway and Limerick are already on the record and the trading success of Bhs, Boots, Debenhams and Argos is an indicator that the locus of attention will very quickly shift to further representation in Dublin, edge of town opportunities, and in the cities of Cork, Galway and Limerick.

By contrast, the traditional high spots of Crafton Street and Henry Street have been quiet during the year - though in Grafton Street six leases changed hands. The most recent premiums represented between 1.5 and three times the rental value.

The fact that there have been few premiums paid in Henry, Street is more a reflection of retailers being happy with the level of trade and the availability of space in the Jervis Shopping Centre than their reluctance to pay premiums.

Interest by retailers has remained very strong in Patrick Street, Cork, Cruises Street, Limerick, and Williamsgate/Shop Street, Galway. The lack of availability of units of the right size and in the right positions in these towns clearly flags the prospects for exceptional premiums being paid.

As the appetite for further space remains unsatisfied, the prospects for future development between now and the turn of the century appears strong. Next year will see the opening of Monarch Property's Bloomfield development in Dun Laoghaire, the O'Callaghan/Tiernan/Diskin Athlone scheme and Deerland Construction's centre in Mullingar. Anchors in these developments are Quinnsworth and Boots at Dun Laoghaire, Quinnsworth and Penneys in Athlone, and Dunnes Stores in Mullingar.

The demand for space by UK retailers is unlikely to be satisfied even by the opening in 1998 of the Quarryvale scheme anchored by Marks & Spencer and C & A and the demand is likely to run through until 1999 to fill the projected schemes at Swords and Dundrum.

Prime retail locations in Cork, Galway and Limerick are also likely to feature strongly in the retail development market over the next few years as opportunities are sought in these towns to meet the needs of the large space users.

The grocery/supermarket property market is likely to become exciting between now and the turn of the century if the much vaunted expansion by Sainsbury, Tesco and Asda becomes a reality, once they have established a strategic presence in the North of Ireland.

Just as 1996 was the year for the ingress of UK retailers, there are good reasons to believe 1997 may not only see further UK retailers but also the advent of US retailers with companies such as Calvin Klein, DKNY, Armani, Gap, Disney and Warner.

All are known to have thrown their slide rules over Dublin because of its increasingly cosmopolitan nature, its strong tourism record and its status as a European capital city.

The increase in rental values has been most evident in new developments. The Jervis Shopping Centre has established Zone A rents of up to £140. This is virtually on a par with the prime rents recently being paid in Henry St, although the fact the Jervis units have the benefit of double rent allowances and rates holidays makes the situation not directly comparable with Henry Street.

Rents achieved in Blanchardstown at £80 to £90 per square foot for zone A now look modest with hindsight and the letting levels being agreed at Quarryvale of £125 to £130 for Zone A reflect the improving economy, the increased retail spend and the virtual four-year time differential between the initial Blanchardstown quotations in 1994 to the anticipated opening date of Quarryvale in the autumn of 1998.

As a result of the lack of new letting opportunities in both Henry Street and Grafton Street, there has been no tangible evidence of increases in rental values. However, premiums being paid, particularly in `Grafton Street', have given rise to a market expectation that with the right sized and located premises available, rents will break through the £200 Zone A barrier quite easily.

Against that background, it would not be surprising to see Henry Street/Mary Street Zone A rents rise to £165 to £175.

The outstanding premium levels, such as the £500,000 paid by Dixons for its Jervis Shopping Centre store, are likely to be a continuing feature of the market for the next two years.

The retail property market will encounter exciting times for the next three to four years. Irish retailers face an exceptional challenge in securing premises against the international competition but there is likely to be renewed enthusiasm by developers for the best of Irish retail offerings to ensure that their developments are different in style and quality to the established shopping centres and locations.