Planning converted votes into seats for FF and FG

LUNCHTIME on Saturday last brought the first ballot-box indications of the outcome of the general election, via the tallymen's estimates of first preferences. Later, from mid to late afternoon, reports of the first declarations began to flood the airwaves.

However, many hours earlier, long before the first ballot box was opened at 9 a.m., readers of The Irish Times had been given a very accurate preview of the outcome of the election via the conclusions of the MRBI election day survey, which were:

"The next government will indeed be led by Fianna Fail. However, the coalition majority with the Progressive Democrats as partners, if it materialises, will be quite marginal".

"Support for Fianna Fail has consolidated over the final week of the campaign, while Fine Gael also has had a slight upturn. This will not influence the outcome since Labour appears to have lost support during the same period. Democratic Left has held its ground in the Dublin battlefield, where the Progressive Democrats could be under pressure from the Greens ... except for the impact of the Green Party, the situation is strikingly similar to the 1989 election".

While these observations were written shortly after 10 p.m. last Friday they contain a number of nuances the relevance of which is now apparent. The first is that, as 1 implied in the quotation, it was not clear to me that the Progressive Democrats' contribution would be adequate to provide a coalition majority with Fianna Fail. I elaborated on this point on radio on Saturday morning

The second point is that while political surveys normally measure first-preference voting intentions and behaviour (and, if desired, transfer patterns), the primary objective of political parties is to maximise the number of seats obtained.

Although the MRBI survey over-stated the first-preference level for Fianna Fail (which we will return to later) and accurately measured the Fine Gael vote, it was not possible at that stage to visualise precisely the remarkable success of both parties in terms of seats won in the Dail.

Fianna Fail obtained 77 seats or 46.4 per cent, with 39.3 per cent of first-preference votes, a ratio of votes:seats of 100:118. Fine Gael captured 54 seats (32.5 per cent) based on 27.9 per cent of votes, a ratio of 100:116. A return of this magnitude has not been achieved by either party in the history of this 166-seat Dail. Over the last five general elections the comparable ratios of votes to seats for Fianna Fail (base 100) were 105, 105, 111, 99 and 103, in reverse order from 1992 to February 1982. For Fine Gael, the ratios were 111, 113, 113, 108 and 102. It would appear, therefore, over these five elections, that Fine Gael has been more consistent than Fianna Fail in this respect.

IN COMMON with most other parties, some of which were not as successful, planning and preliminary ground-work were undertaken by both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael long before the campaign got under way.

Taking Fianna Fail first, the return of seats to votes of 100:118 represents an exceptional return and reflects very effective planning and vote management. On this occasion the party obtained 39.3 per "cent of first-preference votes from 112 candidates, considerably fewer but much better positioned strategically than heretofore. In 1992, the same share of the vote was more widely distributed over 123 candidates - which yielded a much less effective return of seats (68).

Fine Gael also performed considerably better than in 1992 (but in terms of votes not as successfully as in the early 1980s) since its 3.4 per cent increase in first preferences was based on virtually the same number of candidates as in 1992. On this occasion it also yielded a higher return of seats (54), representing a ratio of 100:116 compared with 100:111 (46) in 1992.

The primary objective of all parties is to maximise the number of seats won, and although each of the large parties may have some regrets for not doing better in a few constituencies, the respective performances must be acknowledged.

Finally, and surprisingly, many commentators continue to refer to the MRBI election-day survey as an exit poll. This description is incorrect. MRBI decided against an exit poll because of the provisions of the Electoral Act, 1992. This continues to apply, although the company was asked on several occasions to conduct exit polls this year.