Cantillon: What’s happened to migration under Covid?

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) will on Tuesday publish one of the most important datasets of the year – its population and migration estimates. Apart from detailing the population change in the 12 months to April 2021, the figures will provide the first picture we've had for some time of what's happening in terms of immigration and emigration in the wake of Covid-19. It's expected that both will be way down on previous years because mobility has been limited. Last year's figures – which covered the 12 months to April 2020 (most of which fell outside of the pandemic) – showed the number of immigrants coming in to the State from abroad fell by 3.6 per cent to 85,400; while emigrants, those leaving, rose by nearly 3 per cent to 56,500. These combined flows resulted in net inward migration of 28,900, a reduction of 4,800 or 14.2 per cent on the previous year.

Capacity issues

Analysts hadn’t been expecting a slowdown in net inward migration, not with a booming economy and not with Brexit. The slowdown was linked by some to capacity issues.

Typically, immigration is driven by two things: geographical proximity – meaning the closer you are to the source the more likely you are to receive immigrants; and differences in living standards. We're mid-table in Europe in terms of wages, making us a favourable destination but not perhaps the most desirable. The current high level of unemployment pulls one way, the rebound in the economy, the other. It may be that 2021 will be a complete aberration on account of Covid-19. One of the main drivers of housing demand is population growth, so many in the property industry will be casting a beedy eye on the latest numbers. While the Republic's population is currently just under five million, this is forecast to grow to 6.5 million by 2050, a figure that has major implications for the delivery of housing and health services.